Category: Polls


Holyrood Elections 2021

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Holyrood Elections 2021 1

Key points:

  • Support for the SNP is consistent across all age groups, and particularly strong amongst female voters.
  • Alex Salmond’s new Alba Party has stalled around 4% of total support.
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EU: The external and internal politics of vaccination challenges

  • The strengthening of the EU export restrictions framework does not mean member states will back an extensive use of these powers.
  • Supply issues aside, most member states have been able to deliver the available jabs effectively, but trust issues around the AstraZeneca vaccine might still create rollout challenges.
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Market Survey Results

SURVEY RESULTS: 116 anonymous respondents predominantly financial market professionals.

1) “With US S&P stock index currently at 3550, what is your best guesstimate for the level in 6 months time?”

Market Survey Results 10

2) “If Global GDP in 2021 is around 5-6% as most economists project, what will be the likely impact on US 10 years bond yields?Read the rest

Trump And Fox New Polls

Behind the Fox News Polls

Yesterday, President Trump tweeted out against a recent poll released by Fox News which shows him trailing in battleground states against his 2020 presidential contender Joe Biden. Fortunately, on 4th August 2020 we had the pleasure of hosting Chris Anderson and Matthew Shelter of Beacon Research – the firm that produces the Fox News polls.… Read the rest

US Presidential Election Series 2020

“2016 was a failure of the imagination, not a failure in data”

– Matthew Shelter, Fox News Pollster

Official Polls Converging with High Frequency Data

As we draw closer to November 3rd, the past week has seen some top outlets (NY Times/Fox News) released a series of polls suggesting the Trump campaign has fallen further behind in the key battleground states.

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US Election Forecast

We project Biden to win by 340-355 Electoral College Votes
(see below)

Why are the implied odds for a Trump victory much lower in the betting markets than those of Nate Silver’s (FiveThirtyEight) model?

This may be a bit like asking why England trade at high betting odds to win the (soccer) World Cup, or the Yankees in the World Series. … Read the rest

Our Debut Survey Results

Thank you to all those who participated. We received 116 anonymous responses in total – predominantly from financial market professionals. Going forward, we will try harder to get higher participation rates amongst corporate treasuries and our tech industry followers.

The results presented below are raw data and should not be interpreted as financial advice.Read the rest

How independently do financier think?

Yesterday, we released the results of our markets survey (see below). Typically, a respondent will compare his/her responses against those of the masses in order to identify potential pitfalls of group-think. Unfortunately, the top line figures are not as helpful with this process as one would like.… Read the rest

Iran: The View From Tehran

On Iran… “Pride, insecurity, interest, fear, and honor

–   Norman Roule, Former Head of CIA Iran desk

The view from Tehran

Many conflicting reports have emerged of the events leading up to the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh (head of Iran’s nuclear program) over the past 24-hours.… Read the rest