report February 10, 2021 SPAIN: What to watch after the Catalan election The regional election taking place in Catalonia this Sunday, 14 February, will determine whether the new Catalan government develops a more confrontational stance towards Madrid on the secession issue. On the national level, the vote could complicate cooperation between... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report February 10, 2021 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: Pandemic downsides abound amid ‘vaccine apartheid’ Pandemic downsides abound amid ‘vaccine apartheid’ A second Covid-19 surge is putting to the test assumptions that the pandemic’s public health impact across the continent has been comparatively mild. Health crises and on-and-off lockdowns may be a recurring feature... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report February 9, 2021 ARGENTINA: How vaccines, the economy, and elections fit together The 2021 electoral process involves obligatory party primaries scheduled for 8 August followed by partial legislative mid-terms on 24 October. The mid-terms will not just determine governability in the second half of President Alberto Fernandez’s administration, but will also... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report February 9, 2021 ITALY: Draghi’s coalition of strange bedfellows Mario Draghi began earlier today, 9 February, the final round of talks with smaller parties on forming a new government, followed by separate meetings with key players including the Five Star Movement (M5S), the Democratic Party (PD), and the... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report February 9, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do not... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report February 9, 2021 GERMANY: Geopolitical electioneering does not equal strategic debate Berlin’s (and Europe’s) positioning between Russia, China, and the new US administration has created an unusual amount of geopolitical debate in Germany at the beginning of this crucial election year. While this partly reflects Germany’s increased role in global... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report February 8, 2021 ECUADOR: Perez or Lasso – that is the question With 97.85% of votes cast in the 7 February presidential election now counted, Andres Arauz of the leftist Union for Hope (UNES) coalition has won 32.16% of the vote. Yaku Perez of Pachakutik, the political arm of the Confederation... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report February 8, 2021 US/CHINA: First senior contact under Biden yields little sign of rapprochement China's top foreign policy official, Yang Jiechi, spoke with the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in the first senior-level official contact since US President Joe Biden took office. The readouts from both sides offer little hint that rapprochement... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report February 8, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS The first high-level talks between Chinese officials and the new US administration have been held. In Italy, Mario Draghi’s new cabinet could be announced. After the first round of Ecuador’s presidential election, it is still unclear who came in... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report February 8, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, a tense vote count in Ecuador will determine who should go into an April presidential run-off vote against the leftist Andres Arauz. Politically delicate wage talks get underway in Argentina amid concern over inflationary pressures and renewed... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report February 5, 2021 ITALY: Jumping on Draghi’s bus Prime Minister-designate Mario Draghi will wrap up his consultations with political parties on 6 February, when he meets delegations from the Lega and the Five Star Movement (M5S), and then decide whether he has enough backing to form what... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report February 5, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE Following a constitutional court ruling, the Czech parliament has to adopt new electoral rules ahead of the parliamentary vote scheduled for October. In Poland, the government revealed details of the proposed advertising tax, while Russia is stepping up pressure... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report February 4, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Spain... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
report February 4, 2021 RUSSIA: Navalny’s sidelining weakens both opposition and Putin The sentencing of the Kremlin critic Alexey Navalny leaves the country’s opposition without its most effective leader. While the protest momentum will likely fade amid limited prospects to achieve political change and repressive measures used by authorities, it could... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report February 4, 2021 CHINA: Digital currency is a hedge against dollar supremacy Among global central banks, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has been among the most aggressive in research and development of a blockchain-based digital currency, including at least 130 pending patent applications. Beijing appears to have diverse motivations, including... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report February 4, 2021 MYANMAR: A decade comes undone The possibility of anti-coup protests and a harsh security reaction are the immediate near-term risks. The US government has threatened sanctions but is likely to find that formulating an effective response and coordinating with other governments to generate immediate... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report February 4, 2021 KOREAN PENINSULA: North Korea’s domestic woes could mean opportunity for Biden North Korea’s economy continues to struggle due to border closures even as the country remains highly vulnerable to Covid-19. Domestic conditions could mean Pyongyang refrains from missile or nuclear tests in the near term, creating an opportunity for the... By Tobias Harris, Victor Cha Teneo
report February 4, 2021 ASIA: Weekly politics update Below is the weekly update of political developments across East Asia. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. US/CHINA: China's top diplomat ruffles feathers with speech... By Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Tobias Harris Teneo
report February 3, 2021 EMERGING MARKETS: Covid-19 Vaccination Strategies and Challenges Our EM Covid-19 vaccination table includes information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report February 3, 2021 EGYPT: Continuing to Cruise in Choppy Waters Egypt’s economy continues to outpace the rest of the Middle East, despite the effects of COVID-19 on tourism and shipping. The state remains the key driver of the economy, focused on major, visible projects. Egypt’s economy continues to defy... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo