Rafael Aguilar

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• December 1, 2020

Argentina: Recalculating – GDP Would Fall Less Than 11% in 2020

Economic activity grew 13.2% q/q in the third quarter, a better recovery than expected. September’s numbers were in line with our forecast, but INDEC made a significant backward revision of the pandemic months, worsening Q2 and improving Q3. We...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• November 25, 2020

Argentina: Agreement Still Far Away, Busy Summer

The International Monetary Fund mission left Argentina last weekend. The official statement published on Friday by the Washington-based organization suggests that an agreement between the two parties is still distant. In its very particular language, it states that guidelines...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Mariela Díaz Romero, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• November 20, 2020

Argentina: High Hopes on an IMF Program, But the Task Ain’t Easy

• The Government was successful in lowering the FX spread from a peak of nearly 150% in mid-October to 85% by early November. To do this, it relied on selling dollar bonds at 16-17% yields as well as auctioning...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Mariela Díaz Romero, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• November 18, 2020

ARGENTINA: A Peculiar Orthodox Approach

The Government panicked when the dollar peaked at ARS 195, and it took a small but noticeable turn toward orthodoxy in the last 3 weeks, as we have reported in previous editions. From a quality point of view, the...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• November 11, 2020

Argentina: An Opportunity for a Consistent Plan

Editorial: An Opportunity for a Consistent Plan The IMF mission that will begin negotiations for a program with Argentina is arriving today. This is the next milestone in the economic agenda. The Government was not able to take advantage...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• November 3, 2020

ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

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• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Mariela Díaz Romero, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• October 21, 2020

ARGENTINA: The Wrong Treatment for the Wrong Diagnosis

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• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• October 21, 2020

ARGENTINA: The Government Runs Behind the Exchange Crisis

Last week, there were both monetary policies and declarations. On one hand, minister Guzmán hinted at the outlines to an arrangement with the IMF in his speech at the IDEA forum. An agenda to lower the deficit to zero...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• October 15, 2020

Argentina: Urgent Need for a Stabilization Plan

Editorial: Urgent Need for a Stabilization Plan The parallel dollar hitting 167 pesos set off all the alarms once again. The rumor mill prior to a long weekend anticipated new measures. They have not happened so far. The more...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Mariela Díaz Romero, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• October 7, 2020

Argentina: Too Little, Too Late

Editorial The Central Bank has changed the game. For the first time in a long time, it decided to devalue faster and timidly change the interest rate structure. It left the monetary policy rate at 38% but raised the...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Mariela Díaz Romero, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• September 30, 2020

ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

The Fragility of the Labor Market and Its Social Consequences Unemployment data showed the fragility of Argentina's social scheme very clearly. Unemployment climbed to 13.1% a lower figure than expected by the market. But this cannot be considered good...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Mariela Díaz Romero, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• September 23, 2020

Argentina Economy: The Week at a Glance

The Super Cepo outshined the Budget In another country this weekly editorial would inevitably be about the Budget. The Bill was presented last week. It has a realistic activity expectation, a too-high deficit, and a stubbornly low inflation that...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Mariela Díaz Romero, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• September 16, 2020

ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

No Magic without Credibility for Argentine Bonds The debt restructuring has become a reality. Argentina will have almost no financial pressure for the next 5 years, well into the following administration. The deal with the IMF is still pending,...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Mariela Díaz Romero, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• September 9, 2020

ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

With a Little Help from My Friends The economic scenario is challenging for Argentina. International reserves are scarce, there is an excess of pesos, and an activity level that will fall by 11.6% according to our estimates and 12%...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Mariela Díaz Romero, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• September 2, 2020

ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

Good Closure for the Debt: Now Comes the IMF Argentina successfully closed a very important chapter in its prolific economic history. It is solving its ninth default, practically with no skeletons in the closet after achieving a 93% acceptance...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Mariela Díaz Romero, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• August 25, 2020

ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

In Argentina, the feeling is that we hit rock bottom in April. Cement production, CAME’s sales, new vehicle registrations, Debits and Credits Tax revenue, and the recent PMI made by UADE all show better results in May than in...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Mariela Díaz Romero, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• August 11, 2020

ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

The Implications of the Debt Restructuring Deal It took its time, but it happened. The government finally struck a deal with their main creditors and everything points to the fact that, when figures are disclosed on August 24, Argentina...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Mariela Díaz Romero, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• August 4, 2020

Argentina: The Week at a Glance

The Spread Hops Back on Stage By the end of last week, the dollar exchange rate in its MEP and Blue Chip Swap versions surpassed the 120-peso barrier again and closed with a spread over 70% against the official...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Mariela Díaz Romero, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• July 22, 2020

Argentina: The Week at a Glance

Editorial: Local Debt Restructuring Underway, Foreign Debt Still Gridlocked Last Friday the executive submitted the bill to restructure the dollar debt under local law. This is a step in the right direction because it also fulfills the promise of...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Mariela Díaz Romero, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• July 17, 2020

Argentina Economy: The Week at a Glance

Editorial: Is the Fourth Time the Charm? Argentina submitted its fourth sovereign debt restructuring proposal under foreign law. This time it smells like a goal, but the ball still has to hit the net. Not only has it improved...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Mariela Díaz Romero, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews