ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

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With a Little Help from My Friends The economic scenario is challenging for Argentina. International reserves are scarce, there is an excess of pesos, and an activity level that will fall by 11.6% according to our estimates and 12% if we consider the median of the forecasts in the Central Bank’s monthly survey. The agreement with the IMF is awaited like a sort of Messiah that will help stabilize the economy while the Government debates whether to strengthen restrictions for buying dollars, to split the exchange rate, to fire sell bonds held by the Central Bank, or come up with something els
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Argentina Economy: The Week at a Glance

( 12 mins read ) The Super Cepo outshined the Budget In another country this weekly editorial would inevitably be about the Budget. The Bill was presented last week. It has a realistic activity expectation, a too-high deficit, and a

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ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

( 9 mins read ) No Magic without Credibility for Argentine Bonds The debt restructuring has become a reality. Argentina will have almost no financial pressure for the next 5 years, well into the following administration. The deal with the

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ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

( 14 mins read ) Press play to listen Good Closure for the Debt: Now Comes the IMF Argentina successfully closed a very important chapter in its prolific economic history. It is solving its ninth default, practically with no skeletons

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ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

( 18 mins read ) In Argentina, the feeling is that we hit rock bottom in April. Cement production, CAME’s sales, new vehicle registrations, Debits and Credits Tax revenue, and the recent PMI made by UADE all show better results in May than in April. The ongoing quarantine poses some limitations on activity improving during the coming weeks, but anyhow we expect the trend to stay positive.

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ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

( 18 mins read ) The Implications of the Debt Restructuring Deal It took its time, but it happened. The government finally struck a deal with their main creditors and everything points to the fact that, when figures are disclosed

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Argentina: The Week at a Glance

( 11 mins read ) Press play to listen The Spread Hops Back on Stage By the end of last week, the dollar exchange rate in its MEP and Blue Chip Swap versions surpassed the 120-peso barrier again and closed

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Argentina: The Week at a Glance

( 10 mins read ) Press play to listen Editorial: Local Debt Restructuring Underway, Foreign Debt Still Gridlocked Last Friday the executive submitted the bill to restructure the dollar debt under local law. This is a step in the right

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Argentina Economy: The Week at a Glance

( 16 mins read ) Press play to listen Editorial: Is the Fourth Time the Charm? Argentina submitted its fourth sovereign debt restructuring proposal under foreign law. This time it smells like a goal, but the ball still has to

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Argentina: The Week at a Glance

( 14 mins read ) Press play to listen Editorial: The Financial Health of the Provinces Argentina’s provinces finished 2019 with a primary fiscal surplus for the second year in a row. But, despite this improvement in fiscal behavior, three

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Argentina Economy: The Week at a Glance

( 29 mins read ) Press play to listen Editorial: Emission, the Great Danger for the Second Semester Argentina is heading towards a primary deficit which, being conservative, will reach 5.5% of GDP but could be higher, depending on factors

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Argentina Economy: The Week at a Glance

( 12 mins read ) Press play to listen Editorial: Unnecessary Noise The announcement that Vicentín was being expropriated made a lot of unnecessary noise in the economy. This could complicate both the short-term and medium-term outlook, the former because

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Argentina: Econviews Monthly Report

( 37 mins read ) Press play to listen Recent Developments COVID-19: 85% of the country has normalized activities with social distancing recommendations (with the exception of tourism, massive events and inter-jurisdictional transport, which are not allowed). In the case

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Tercer mes seguido en que las exportaciones a brasil recuperan a doble digito m/m sin estacionalidad. Más que la soja, nos va a ayudar Brasil que va a terminar cayendo menos de 5% este año con crecimiento de 3.5% en 2021.

EL ICC CAE 2,4% EN SEPTIEMBRE
El Índice de Confianza del Consumidor (ICC) elaborado por el @CIF_UTDT junto a @Poliarquia_ se sitúa en 40,3 puntos en septiembre, marcando una reducción de 2,4%. Desde el primer mes de gestión de Alberto Fernández, el ICC cae 6,3%. #EncuestaMensual

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新著「The Iconoclast: Shinzo Abe and the New Japan」の著者Tobias Harris氏(@observingjapan )を招き、歴在首相のなかで最長の連続在任期間をもつ政治家安倍晋三氏の業績や世界に与えた影響、そして今後の日本についてお話し頂きます。

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America is a Normal Country: Presidentialism Can Break It, and Exceptionalism Won’t Save It http://tompepinsky.com/2020/09/24/america-is-a-normal-country-presidentialism-can-break-it-and-exceptionalism-wont-save-it/

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It was far from obvious when he was reelected that Shinzo Abe would not only stay in office for more than seven years but dominate Japan’s political system as no leader had before. Read @observingjapan on the uphill battle ahead of Abe’s successor:
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