The Week at a Glance

Argentina: Recalculating – GDP Would Fall Less Than 11% in 2020

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Economic activity grew 13.2% q/q in the third quarter, a better recovery than expected. September’s numbers were in line with our forecast, but INDEC made a significant backward revision of the pandemic months, worsening Q2 and improving Q3. We do not expect September’s 1.9% monthly rise to continue in Q4. For October, our model estimates a much more moderate growth, around half a point, and November and December will not be much better. Considering this, we have improved the performance of 2020 by almost one point, from -11.6% to -10.7%. One of the effects of INDEC’s revisions
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