Forecasting Track record

US and UK: The Comeback Kids

Olivier Desbarres

4X Global Research (4XGR)
March 5, 2021

The US Dollar NEER has since 12th February appreciated about 2.3% to a 4-month high and its inverse correlation with the S&P 500 (-4.2%) has re-established itself. This is in line with our forecast that the Dollar’s sell-off in early February was “a small, short-term correct...

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July 23, 2021

Not “risk-on” or “risk-off”, rather What’s the risk?

In the past fortnight US Treasury yields across the maturity spectrum have oscillated in reasonably wide ranges, with the highs coinciding with the release on 13th July of US CPI-inflation data. The shape of the yield curve today is...

By Olivier Desbarres

4X Global Research (4XGR)

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July 19, 2021

Sterling’s coming home…albeit slowly

Despite buoyant domestic expectations (or at least hope) football will not be coming home after the England football team lost on penalties to Italy in Sunday’s final of the Euro Championship but Sterling is arguably coming home, albeit slowly. &nbsp......

By Olivier Desbarres

4X Global Research (4XGR)

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June 29, 2021

Sterling leads Euro 1-0 at half-time in dull encounter but could extend advantage

With England due to play Germany in the last-16 round of the Euro Championships in a few hours time, now is a good time to revisit the Sterling-Euro exchange rate. Football fans will be hoping for... Become a member...

By Olivier Desbarres

4X Global Research (4XGR)

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June 22, 2021

Fed: Same game, different rules

The Federal Reserve at its policy meeting on 16th June, whether inadvertently or by design, reset financial markets’ clocks. The dust has since settled somewhat, with US short-end and long-end yields, the US Dollar and S&P 500 trading sideways...

4X Global Research (4XGR)

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June 9, 2021

Have hawks finally lost altitude?

Time and time again in the past five weeks US Treasuries and the S&P 500 have sold off and the Dollar rallied in the wake of hawkish US surprises only for markets to quickly unwind these moves. Volatility... Become...

4X Global Research (4XGR)