US Dollar – Calm before the storm?

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The Dollar has treaded water in the past three months, in line with our benign view that “forecasts of the Dollar’s demise as the world’s number one reserve currency are at best extremely premature, at worst unfounded”. Our fundamental perspective is that a structural shift out of Dollars remains unlikely near-term, regardless of the outcome of the Presidential and Senate elections on 3rd November. One reason is that other major reserve currencies such as the Euro, Sterling and Canadian Dollar – which account for a large share of the Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEE
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