report July 23, 2021 Not “risk-on” or “risk-off”, rather What’s the risk? In the past fortnight US Treasury yields across the maturity spectrum have oscillated in reasonably wide ranges, with the highs coinciding with the release on 13th July of US CPI-inflation data. The shape of the yield curve today is... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report July 19, 2021 Sterling’s coming home…albeit slowly Despite buoyant domestic expectations (or at least hope) football will not be coming home after the England football team lost on penalties to Italy in Sunday’s final of the Euro Championship but Sterling is arguably coming home, albeit slowly.  ...... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report June 29, 2021 Sterling leads Euro 1-0 at half-time in dull encounter but could extend advantage With England due to play Germany in the last-16 round of the Euro Championships in a few hours time, now is a good time to revisit the Sterling-Euro exchange rate. Football fans will be hoping fo... Become a... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report June 22, 2021 Fed: Same game, different rules The Federal Reserve at its policy meeting on 16th June, whether inadvertently or by design, reset financial markets’ clocks. The dust has since settled somewhat, with US short-end and long-end yields, the US Dollar and S&P 500 trading sideways... 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report June 9, 2021 Have hawks finally lost altitude? Time and time again in the past five weeks US Treasuries and the S&P 500 have sold off and the Dollar rallied in the wake of hawkish US surprises only for markets to quickly unwind these moves. Volatilit... ... 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report May 28, 2021 Tantrum “lite” won’t help US Dollar US financial markets have had to contend with three “hawkish surprises” so far this month and on each occasion price action has been broadly the same. Initially the Dollar rallied, the S&P 500 sold off and US Treasury yields... 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report May 14, 2021 US markets playing along to Fed tune…for now Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments ten days ago were merely a temporary distraction. Perhaps more surprisingly, at first glance, the release on Wednesday of a much larger-than-expected increase in US CPI-inflation in April has not had much “sticking power”. Core... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report April 1, 2021 Crunch time for Singapore Dollar and Renminbi We estimate that the USD-value of central bank FX reserves – adjusted for currency-valuation effects – in China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand rose by about $342bn (1.5% of GDP) between end-March 2020 and end-February... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report March 26, 2021 Non-Japan Asia: NEERs and FX intervention Non-Japan Asian (NJA) central banks’ foreign currency (FX) reserves have gradually increased since end-March 2020, arguably the peak in global risk aversion. We estimate that the aggregate US Dollar-value of FX reserves in China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines,... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report March 19, 2021 EM currencies: Central bank friends and foes The Fed updated “dot-chart” of all FOMC members’ expectations of the appropriate policy rate points to only an incrementally less dovish stance. Based on a weighted average FOMC members still only expect one 25bp hike by end-2023, according to... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report March 5, 2021 US and UK: The Comeback Kids The US Dollar NEER has since 12th February appreciated about 2.3% to a 4-month high and its inverse correlation with the S&P 500 (-4.2%) has re-established itself. This is in line with our forecast that the Dollar’s sell-off in... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report March 1, 2021 Transitional UK budget unlikely to rattle markets The British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will on 3rd March, at around 12.30 UK time, present to the House of Commons the annual budget for the United Kingdom. The ruling Conservative Party has a significant working majority... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report February 12, 2021 Dollar’s recent weakness – Blip, not new trend In the past nine weeks major currencies and global equity markets have traded broadly in line with our expectations. The US Dollar has traded in a very narrow range, confounding consistently bearish market expectations. Similarly, most emerging Asian currencies... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report February 2, 2021 Currency seasonality’s slow comeback? This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2010, using over two million daily data points with trade-weights derived from the BIS (April 2019) and national central banks... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report January 18, 2021 Dollar – Diversification, rotation and valuations Media and analyst reports focussing on the scope for further US Dollar weakness and Emerging Market currency outperformance have continued to proliferate in the past month. The consensus view is still seemingly that a Democratic administration will fuel large... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report January 4, 2021 Monthly currency seasonality: Down and out? This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2010, using over two million daily data points with trade-weights derived from the BIS (April 2019) and national central banks... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report December 11, 2020 Sunday bloody Sunday Sterling underperformed in September, in line with our bearish forecast (UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy, 4th September 2020). It gradually recovered from 22nd September, appreciated throughout October and peaked on 27th November. Sterling NEER has since weake...... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report December 8, 2020 Far more to Renminbi than USD/CNY cross The prevailing market view, as depicted in a recent Reuters article, is seemingly that Chinese policy makers are happy to allow further Renminbi appreciation versus the Dollar driven by a rising domestic trade surplus and strong capital account inflows.... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report November 25, 2020 Time is priceless but has a steep cost While some countries, including Sweden and United states, have eschewed national lockdowns over the past nine months or so the vast majority have adopted unprecedented measures to deal with a once in a century pandemic which has so... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
report October 28, 2020 US Dollar – Calm before the storm? The Dollar has treaded water in the past three months, in line with our benign view that “forecasts of the Dollar’s demise as the world’s number one reserve currency are at best extremely premature, at worst unfounded”. Our fundamental... By Olivier Desbarres 4X Global Research (4XGR)
