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Most recent by Isaías Marini

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Argentina: Recalculating – GDP Would Fall Less Than 11% in 2020

Economic activity grew 13.2% q/q in the third quarter, a better recovery than expected. September’s numbers were in line with our forecast, but INDEC made a significant backward revision of the pandemic months, worsening Q2 and improving Q3. We do not expect September’s 1.9% mont...   Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail...
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Argentina: Agreement Still Far Away, Busy Summer

The International Monetary Fund mission left Argentina last weekend. The official statement published on Friday by the Washington-based organization suggests that an agreement between the two parties is still distant. In its very particular language, it states that guidelines for...   Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me    ...
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Argentina: High Hopes on an IMF Program, But the Task Ain’t Easy

• The Government was successful in lowering the FX spread from a peak of nearly 150% in mid-October to 85% by early November. To do this, it relied on selling dollar bonds at 16-17% yields as well as auctioning dollar-linked instruments to provide devaluation coverage. The govern...   Become a member to read the rest of this article Username...
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Argentina: An Opportunity for a Consistent Plan

Editorial: An Opportunity for a Consistent Plan The IMF mission that will begin negotiations for a program with Argentina is arriving today. This is the next milestone in the economic agenda. The Government was not able to take advantage of the good sovereign debt restructuring t...   Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or...
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ARGENTINA: The Government Runs Behind the Exchange Crisis

Last week, there were both monetary policies and declarations. On one hand, minister Guzmán hinted at the outlines to an arrangement with the IMF in his speech at the IDEA forum. An agenda to lower the deficit to zero and impose limits on the Central Bank’s financing of the Treas...   Become a member to read the rest of...
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Argentina: Urgent Need for a Stabilization Plan

Editorial: Urgent Need for a Stabilization Plan The parallel dollar hitting 167 pesos set off all the alarms once again. The rumor mill prior to a long weekend anticipated new measures. They have not happened so far. The more it takes to find a consistent economic plan, the worse...   Become a member to read the rest of this...
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ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

The Fragility of the Labor Market and Its Social Consequences Unemployment data showed the fragility of Argentina's social scheme very clearly. Unemployment climbed to 13.1% a lower figure than expected by the market. But this cannot be considered good news. Instead of looking a...   Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password...
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Argentina Economy: The Week at a Glance

The Super Cepo outshined the Budget In another country this weekly editorial would inevitably be about the Budget. The Bill was presented last week. It has a realistic activity expectation, a too-high deficit, and a stubbornly low inflation that underestimates revenues. This in t...   Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password...
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ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

No Magic without Credibility for Argentine Bonds The debt restructuring has become a reality. Argentina will have almost no financial pressure for the next 5 years, well into the following administration. The deal with the IMF is still pending, but nobody really believes Argentin...   Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password...
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ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

With a Little Help from My Friends The economic scenario is challenging for Argentina. International reserves are scarce, there is an excess of pesos, and an activity level that will fall by 11.6% according to our estimates and 12% if we consider the median of the forecasts in th...   Become a member to read the rest of this...
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ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

Good Closure for the Debt: Now Comes the IMF Argentina successfully closed a very important chapter in its prolific economic history. It is solving its ninth default, practically with no skeletons in the closet after achieving a 93% acceptance rate, which means over 99% of the bo...   Become a member to read the rest of this article Username...
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ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

In Argentina, the feeling is that we hit rock bottom in April. Cement production, CAME’s sales, new vehicle registrations, Debits and Credits Tax revenue, and the recent PMI made by UADE all show better results in May than in April. The ongoing quarantine poses some limitations on activity improving during the coming weeks, but anyhow we expect the trend...
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ARGENTINA: The Week at a Glance

The Implications of the Debt Restructuring Deal It took its time, but it happened. The government finally struck a deal with their main creditors and everything points to the fact that, when figures are disclosed on August 24, Argentina will get the special majorities to trigger ...   Become a member to read the rest of this article Username...
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Argentina: The Week at a Glance

Editorial: Local Debt Restructuring Underway, Foreign Debt Still Gridlocked Last Friday the executive submitted the bill to restructure the dollar debt under local law. This is a step in the right direction because it also fulfills the promise of matching the conditions of the pr...   Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail...
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Argentina Economy: The Week at a Glance

Editorial: Is the Fourth Time the Charm? Argentina submitted its fourth sovereign debt restructuring proposal under foreign law. This time it smells like a goal, but the ball still has to hit the net. Not only has it improved the financial terms, but it has also made legal conces...   Become a member to read the rest of this...