report June 14, 2021 FRANCE: What the regional elections mean for next year’s presidential contest The ruling Republic on the Move (LREM) party's likely poor performance in the 20 and 27 June regional and departmental polls should not be seen as a bellwether of next year's presidential election. A potential victory of Marine Le... By Antonio Barroso Teneo
report June 14, 2021 CHILE: Governor votes to impact presidential race amid constitutional rumblings Run-off votes for regional governors took place yesterday, 13 June, in 13 out of Chile's 16 regions. Turnout was strikingly low at 19.6%, and well down on the "mega-elections" that took place in mid- May. Voter fatigue goes some... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report June 14, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS G7 leaders have agreed to prevent forced labor in global supply chains. The US-Russia summit is unlikely to ameliorate tensions. Peru's electoral authorities are reviewing the presidential election results. Regional and departmental elections will take place in France. Cote... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report June 14, 2021 IRAN: Presidential elections unlikely to surprise The Iranian government is trying to make the 18 June presidential election as anti-climactic as possible, removing every possible stumbling block to the rise of Ebrahim Raisi. The conventional wisdom is increasingly converging on a nuclear deal being struck... By Jon B. Alterman Teneo
report June 14, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Peru continues to wait for a definitive result from the 6 June presidential election. Venezuela's electoral system will come under scrutiny as the regime experiments with limited gestures towards the opposition. Colombia's protests appear to be fizzling... By Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson Teneo
report June 13, 2021 TURKEY: Erdogan likely to go back home empty-handed from summit with Biden The Turkish lira rallied nearly 2% on 11 June to its strongest level in a month ahead of a meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his US counterpart , Joe Biden, scheduled for 14 June. A charm... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report June 10, 2021 TURKEY: Erdogan to meet Biden, no breakthrough expected US President Joe Biden will meet with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Brussels on 14 June during the NATO summit, less than two months after Biden declared the WWI mass killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turks as an act... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report June 10, 2021 GREECE: Labor market reform after record bond sale Greece is experiencing a slow start to its tourism season but even though such a key sector continues to feel the impact of the pandemic, the latest GDP figures provided some encouragement for a swift economic recovery as Covid-19... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report June 10, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. France... By Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report June 9, 2021 MALAYSIA: With politics in dire straits, sultans could swing sentiments The sultans who head Malaysia’s nine royal households — collectively known as the monarchy — will meet on 16 June to discuss the country’s top political issues: the vaccine rollout, the recent spike in Covid-19 cases, and the end... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report June 7, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS In Mexico, AMLO’s coalition is well short of a two-thirds majority. EU and US leaders will meet for several transatlantic summits. Vote counting is continuing in Peru. Meanwhile, India’s PM will address the nation, the Greens are the party... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report June 4, 2021 SOUTHEAST ASIA: Vaccines, stimulus and travel reopenings The outbreak in continental Southeast Asia has already passed eight weeks, increasing the pressure on governments to address growing public disgruntlement at slow vaccine roll outs. Malaysia and Thailand, where leaders could face potentially disaffected voters or protests, are... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report June 3, 2021 MEXICO: AMLO course change unlikely even if Morena loses ground in mid-terms Elections for the lower house of Congress take place on 6 June alongside 15 state gubernatorial elections and a host of state assembly and municipal ballots. The campaign has been marked by the ongoing pandemic and vaccination campaign; President... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report June 3, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE The mounting suspicions of corruption will likely hurt the center-right Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) in the July elections. Latvia’s Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins went ahead with the anticipated cabinet reshuffle, while the Czech government is... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report June 3, 2021 CHINA: Central bank seeks to manage RMB expectations without intervention The renminbi has strengthened by 2.3% against the US dollar this year, raising the question of how much appreciation the People's Bank of China (PBoC) will tolerate. The PBoC probably cares more about the trade-weighted exchange rate than the... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report June 3, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Luis Cornago Teneo
report June 2, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments around the world are implementing to counter the fallout from Covid-19. The updated table includes information about each country's vaccination strategy. Please do not... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report June 2, 2021 GERMANY: Saxony-Anhalt election and party manifestos ahead Last week’s constitutional court ruling on Germany’s climate law has not remained without consequences. The Karlsruhe judges decreed that, in its current form, the law violates the freedoms of future generations in that it postpones the most drastic climate... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report June 2, 2021 SOUTH AFRICA: Third wave collides with fragile recovery, choppy politics A third Covid-19 wave has prompted President Cyril Ramaphosa to raise South Africa’s lockdown level by one notch, but the restrictions are very mild compared to last year’s economy-wide lockdown. The Covid-19 surge and slow vaccine rollout remain major... By Anne Frühauf Teneo
report June 2, 2021 PERU: Polls tighten ahead of run-off as political instability set to endure Campaigning for the 6 June presidential run-off vote officially closes tomorrow, 3 June. The race is between the leftist Pedro Castillo of the Peru Libre (PL) party and Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular (FP). Two-thirds of voters voted for... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
