Author: 4X Global Research
China’s V-shaped recovery under the microscope
4X Global Research
July 20, 2020
Chinese GDP growth (seasonally-adjusted) was 11.5% qoq in Q2. This was stronger than consensus forecast (+9.6% qoq) and more than reversed Q1 contraction of 9.8% qoq. This record-high growth reflects both a post-lockdown bounce in economic activity and of course extremely “favourable” base effects.… Read the rest
Olivier Desbarres
4X Global Research
March 20, 2020
Olivier Desbarres is a Director and the Founder of 4X Global Research.
He worked for 15 years as a senior Economist, Rates and FX strategist for Credit Suisse and Barclays in Moscow, London and Singapore.
Retail sales key to UK economic growth recovery
4X Global Research
July 30, 2020
The volume of retail sales – the value of the sale of goods adjusted for domestic inflation – rose a faster-than-expected 14% mom in June. In level terms UK retail sales were only 1% below the average recorded in the 12 months to February 2020.… Read the rest
Warnings about US economy and USD overblown
4X Global Research
August 4, 2020
The United States’ post-war record GDP contraction in Q2 of 9.5% qoq and the Dollar’s recent depreciation have been making headline news but some perspective is required.
The US GDP contracted about 10.6% in H1 2020, far more than in China (+0.6%) and South Korea (-4.6%).… Read the rest
Major economies & currencies – What to look out for and why it matters
4X Global Research
July 13, 2020
Price action in major currencies was again subdued last week. With few tier-one macro data releases for markets to trade off the focus was on the reaction function of governments and central banks to covid-19 related developments.… Read the rest
United Kingdom: Back to 1999… and to the future
4X Global Research
June 26, 2020
Part Two of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the critical role played by the British government, which continues to pump tens of billions into the economy via a vast array of measures, including a furlough scheme, to support household disposable incomes and ultimately consumption and GDP growth.… Read the rest
United Kingdom: Anatomy of economy on lockdown life-support
4X Global Research
June 18, 2020
Part One of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the devastating impact which the national lockdown – introduced on 23rd March – has had on domestic economic activity and the implications for the UK (and other major economies) going forward.… Read the rest
Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick
4X Global Research
June 5, 2020
- While GDP data for Q1 are now “old” and seemingly of limited use, it makes little sense to forecast global growth in Q2 and beyond without at least knowing the starting point.
Lessons learnt from Q1 collapse in global GDP
4X Global Research
May 21, 2020
Global GDP growth, in year-on-year terms, slowed to -2.7% in Q12020 from +3.1% in Q4 2019 and in quarter-on-quarter terms to -4.5% from +0.6% in Q4, based on growth rates in 14 major economies accounting for close to 90% of world GDP.… Read the rest