report December 4, 2023 Argentina | Chainsaw Challenges Download Editorial: Chainsaw Challenges Most economists (including those of us at Econviews) believe that fiscal adjustment is a necessary condition to stabilize the economy. That is to say, Javier Milei has the correct diagnosis. The chainsaw analogy he used... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar EconViews
report November 30, 2023 Argentina | Milei Promises Pro-market Policies… Can He Deliver? Download Editorial: Milei Promises Pro-market Policies... Can He Deliver? Finally it's Milei, hope won over fear and the vote was for change. But the path facing the economy is complex. We are not going to travel on a highway,... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar EconViews
report November 14, 2023 Argentina | There Is No Promised Land Without a Season in the Desert Download Editorial The Argentine economy accumulates many important problems. It has negative net reserves, Soviet exchange restrictions, an overappreciated exchange rate, 12 months without growth, inflation that has a floor of 180% for this year, and more than 40%... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar EconViews
report October 30, 2023 Argentina | The Need for Structural Reforms Download Editorial: The Need for Structural Reforms The scenarios are becoming somewhat clearer. Philosophically there is a ruling party embodied in Sergio Massa, who if he wins will have to take charge of the disorders of recent years. Milei... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar EconViews
report October 7, 2023 Argentina | 900 Reasons for the Run on the Peso Download Editorial: 900 Reasons for the Run on the Peso The government is not generating any credibility. It insists on patches that have diminishing returns: a special exchange rate for oil exporters, small and medium businesses and now perhaps... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar EconViews
report October 2, 2023 Argentina | Waiting for the Turbulence of December: 2015 Reloaded? Download Editorial: Waiting for the Turbulence of December: 2015 Reloaded? Everything indicates that we are going to have a turbulent December. Memories of other turbulent summers intensify, such as February 1989, which marked the beginning of hyperinflation, or December... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar EconViews
report September 25, 2023 Argentina | Are We in the Eighties With Electricity and Smartphones? Download Editorial: Are We in the Eighties With Electricity and Smartphones? With each passing week the feeling that the Argentine economy is approaching the one we experienced in the eighties cannot be avoided. It does not mean that the... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar EconViews
report September 19, 2023 Argentina | The Inheritance Keeps Getting Worse Downloads Editorial: The Inheritance Keeps Getting Worse We don't know who is going to win the elections. But we do know that the legacy of problems for the next government has not stopped getting worse in recent weeks. This... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar EconViews
report September 11, 2023 Argentina | Income Tax in the Upside Down Download Editorial: Income Tax in the Upside Down Argentina’s terrible application of the personal income tax is impressive. Last week it was YPF employees and now Massa is doubling the bet with a proposal to eliminate the income tax.... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Mariela Díaz Romero, Miguel A. Kiguel, Rafael Aguilar EconViews
report September 4, 2023 Argentina | 80s Inflation Returns Download Editorial: 80s Inflation Returns Argentina returns to the 80s in terms of inflation. The numbers for August are going to show something close to 12% per month and September is not looking much better. Perhaps there may be... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar EconViews
report August 28, 2023 Argentina | The IMF Money Is Here… Now What? Download report Editorial: The IMF Money Is Here... Now What? After many episodes, this season of the IMF novel came to a close. But there are many more seasons in the works. To some extent this one had a... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar EconViews
report August 23, 2023 Argentina | The Week at a Glance- August 22nd, 2023 Download report Editorial: The Problems of Dollarization Javier Milei's victory brought into focus the dollarization plan for which the candidate for president has been fighting. Our opinion is that dollarization is a plan that should be considered as a... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar EconViews
report August 15, 2023 Argentina | A Black Swan With All the Options Open Editorial: A Black Swan With All the Options Open The result of the primary election in Argentina delivered important surprises. Javier Milei, who was supposed to come third, emerged as the winner. His party obtained 30.04% of the votes... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar EconViews
report August 7, 2023 The Central Bank Walks on the Tightrope Editorial: The Central Bank Walks on the TightropeWhen hiring staff at the Central Bank, they should put experience as a tightrope walker or juggler as exclusive requirements. Clearly that ability came into play in these last few days. On... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar EconViews
report July 24, 2023 Argentina | Distortions Upon Distortions to Muddle Through Editorial: Distortions Upon Distortions to Muddle Through The government continues negotiating with the IMF, but there is nothing concrete yet. Econviews' thesis is that one way or another there will be an agreement such that at least the IMF... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar EconViews, Speevr Intelligence
report March 3, 2023 Argentina: The FX Spread Widens and Messes (even more) The Economy The official exchange rate remains tamed. On average, the dollar rose 1% in October, 1.1% in September and 1% in August. Well below inflation, that averaged more than 3% per month. It is true that in the last week... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel EconViews
report October 25, 2021 Argentina: Orderly or Messy Adjustment? When the legislative elections of November 14 pass, all eyes will return almost exclusively to the economy. Once the results are digested, the question will be how Argentina will resolve the many imbalances that are beginning to grow. They... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel EconViews
report October 13, 2021 Argentina: New “Cepo”, Old Problems, No Solutions Last week the Central Bank again intensified the “cepo”, cutting import payments and making the operation of alternative dollars even more restrictive. You could see it coming. The sale of reserves was unsustainable, and it did not seem very... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Miguel A. Kiguel EconViews
report October 4, 2021 Argentina: Transitory Needs and Permanent Problems This week the government announced a plan for 55-year-old women and 60-year-old men to obtain their retirement if they are unemployed and meet a contribution requirement. The logic of the measure is that it is not easy for this... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Miguel A. Kiguel EconViews
report September 27, 2021 Argentina: Open for Business “High-Beta” is one of the most used analogies to describe the Argentine economy. There is a mathematical reason for that. Argentina is not the economy with the worst performance in a medium-term perspective compared to a large sample of... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Miguel A. Kiguel EconViews
report September 21, 2021 Argentina: More Short-Term Uncertainty, an Opportunity in the Long Term The results of the primary elections were surprising, as well as how quickly internal tensions escalated within the ruling coalition. The market's vote was a cautiously optimistic one, recognizing that the short term is fraught with problems, although the... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel EconViews
report September 14, 2021 Argentina: The Current Rate of Intervention Is Unsustainable The BCRA sold more than 800 million dollars since the FX market changed from positive to negative on August 26. There are several factors behind that. There were companies that canceled debts in dollars, banks that had reduced their... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Miguel A. Kiguel EconViews
report September 8, 2021 Argentina: Waiting for the budget On September 15, 3 days after the primary elections, Congress will receive from Martín Guzmán the budget bill for 2022. Although the budget has not traditionally had the importance in Argentina that it usually has in other democracies thanks... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel EconViews
report August 31, 2021 Argentina: Agreement With the IMF: One More Round Is Missing This week, Argentine financial asset prices soared. Some say that the polls are bad for the government and that is good for the markets. Others attribute the rally to the versions that circulated in the press about an imminent... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel EconViews
report August 23, 2021 Argentina: Pro-investment legislation? That’s new! The government announced this week that it will soon send to the Congress the Law that encourages investments in oil and gas. It is not a Hail Mary play, nor will it be a breaking point, but it is... By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel EconViews
