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October 13, 2021

The Week at a Glance

Argentina: New “Cepo”, Old Problems, No Solutions

BY Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Miguel A. Kiguel

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Last week the Central Bank again intensified the “cepo”, cutting import payments and making the operation of alternative dollars even more restrictive. You could see it coming. The sale of reserves was unsustainable, and it did not seem very likely that the government would bless a devaluation before the November 14 elections.

A Driverless Private Credit

-Domestic credit to private sector stopped falling in the third quarter, but it is hardly the beginning of a dynamic that reverses a process of long decline.

-The fiscal dominance of monetary policy imposes a logic that ends up diverting loanable funds -In 2022 and onwards, this dynamic will continue if it is not aimed at financing the fiscal deficit in a genuine way, that is, through the local or international capital market.


Argentina: Orderly or Messy Adjustment?

When the legislative elections of November 14 pass, all eyes will return almost exclusively to the economy. Once the results are digested, the question will be how Argentina will resolve the many imbalances that are

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Argentina: Open for Business

“High-Beta” is one of the most used analogies to describe the Argentine economy. There is a mathematical reason for that. Argentina is not the economy with the worst performance in a medium-term perspective compared to

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Argentina: Waiting for the budget

On September 15, 3 days after the primary elections, Congress will receive from Martín Guzmán the budget bill for 2022. Although the budget has not traditionally had the importance in Argentina that it usually has

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