On September 15, 3 days after the primary elections, Congress will receive from Martín Guzmán the budget bill for 2022. Although the budget has not traditionally had the importance in Argentina that it usually has in other democracies thanks to different factors such as the use of “special powers” to change spending allocations, special decrees, and out-of-the-range macro estimates, we believe that this year the budget numbers will have a greater relevance than usual.
How many dollars are left?
Reserves rose to USD 46.2 billion after the IMF’s USD 4.319 billion entered at the end of August. The figure may give a feeling of some sufficiency, but the situation is far from comfortable. A good part of the money that arrived in August will go to the IMF in September and December. And in our estimates, half of the reserves that the BCRA managed to acquire will be lost during the last months of the year.
The Day After the Primary Elections
Between the primary elections to be held next Sunday 12 and the general elections, dated November 14, there are 63 days that could look very different, in terms of the economic policies that are implemented, depending on the result left by the PASO. In the event that there is a defeat of the ruling party (preliminary, since they are primary), the need to bet with everything for a rebound would be activated, regardless of the cost. Is this scenario possible? What does it imply for macroeconomic equilibrium?
Dear clients and friends, We take the opportunity to invite you to our next quarterly conference call that will be held on September 14 at 11 a.m. (Buenos Aires time). During the next few days, you will receive the access link.