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September 21, 2021

The Week at a Glance

Argentina: More Short-Term Uncertainty, an Opportunity in the Long Term

BY Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel

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The results of the primary elections were surprising, as well as how quickly internal tensions escalated within the ruling coalition. The market’s vote was a cautiously optimistic one, recognizing that the short term is fraught with problems, although the chances of a regime change in 2023 have increased. The market’s logic is that this means good news for the business world. We tend to agree with this interpretation.

You Must Agree With the 33%!

*Impossible, My Friend

In the midst of the political crisis, which at times threatens to become an institutional crisis, the 2022 Budget was sent to the National Congress. Beyond the fact that the figures on it were established without with a more “normal” situation, so they could not even remotely foresee the impact of the events that are happening in recent days, they contain inconsistencies that are obvious, the largest being the one that it concerns the projection of inflation.

August Inflation: The Lowest So Far This Year (And the Remainder)

After an election to be forgotten and the tumult that resulted within the ruling coalition, INDEC delivered good news that went almost unnoticed: the inflation print for August was the lowest in 13 months. The result sounded like too little, too late: lowering inflation a few tenths would not be enough to change the electoral landscape for November. The other bad news is that inflation is unlikely to continue falling.


Argentina: Orderly or Messy Adjustment?

When the legislative elections of November 14 pass, all eyes will return almost exclusively to the economy. Once the results are digested, the question will be how Argentina will resolve the many imbalances that are

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Argentina: Open for Business

“High-Beta” is one of the most used analogies to describe the Argentine economy. There is a mathematical reason for that. Argentina is not the economy with the worst performance in a medium-term perspective compared to

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Argentina: Waiting for the budget

On September 15, 3 days after the primary elections, Congress will receive from Martín Guzmán the budget bill for 2022. Although the budget has not traditionally had the importance in Argentina that it usually has

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