October 25, 2021

The Week at a Glance

Argentina: Orderly or Messy Adjustment?

BY Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Miguel A. Kiguel, Lorena Giorgio, Isaías Marini

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( 2 mins)

When the legislative elections of November 14 pass, all eyes will return almost exclusively to the economy. Once the results are digested, the question will be how Argentina will resolve the many imbalances that are beginning to grow. They are, mainly, the fiscal issue, the monetary issue, largely the daughter of fiscal problems, and the FX issue, since a spread of 100% will be little more than unsustainable.

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, Which One Will Be?

-The primary deficit from January to September was 1.27% of GDP (excluding SDRs), 3.5 points lower than the one in the same period last year -The reduction in the deficit is explained by extraordinary resources by 1% of GDP and by the adjustment in expenses, mainly retirement and social expenses, by 2.5% of GDP -For the last quarter of the year, the government will have neither extraordinary resources nor the political backing to continue adjusting spending, so it will accelerate as well as the deficit

The Recovery in Fast Motion

-The economy advanced 1.1% monthly in August, above the market consensus, and was 12.8% above its level a year ago -Economic activity was for the first time above its level before the start of the pandemic, 0.3% over February 2020 -We have revised upwards our GDP projection for this year and we expect it to grow 9%, although we maintain our expectation of 2.5% for 2022

 

Econviews Weekly October 25th 2021

Argentina: Orderly or Messy Adjustment?

( 2 mins) When the legislative elections of November 14 pass, all eyes will return almost exclusively to the economy. Once the results are digested, the question will be how Argentina will resolve the many imbalances that are

Read More »

Argentina: Open for Business

( 2 mins) “High-Beta” is one of the most used analogies to describe the Argentine economy. There is a mathematical reason for that. Argentina is not the economy with the worst performance in a medium-term perspective compared to

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Argentina: Waiting for the budget

( 2 mins) On September 15, 3 days after the primary elections, Congress will receive from Martín Guzmán the budget bill for 2022. Although the budget has not traditionally had the importance in Argentina that it usually has

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