Argentina: More Short-Term Uncertainty, an Opportunity in the Long Term
The results of the primary elections were surprising, as well as how quickly internal tensions escalated within the ruling coalition. The market’s vote was a cautiously optimistic one, recognizing that the short term is fraught with problems, although the chances of a regime chan… Become a member to read the rest of this article […]
Argentina: The Current Rate of Intervention Is Unsustainable
The BCRA sold more than 800 million dollars since the FX market changed from positive to negative on August 26. There are several factors behind that. There were companies that canceled debts in dollars, banks that had reduced their foreign currency position a few months ago and … Become a member to read the […]
Argentina: Waiting for the budget
On September 15, 3 days after the primary elections, Congress will receive from Martín Guzmán the budget bill for 2022. Although the budget has not traditionally had the importance in Argentina that it usually has in other democracies thanks to different factors such as the use o… Become a member to read the rest […]
Argentina: Agreement With the IMF: One More Round Is Missing
This week, Argentine financial asset prices soared. Some say that the polls are bad for the government and that is good for the markets. Others attribute the rally to the versions that circulated in the press about an imminent agreement with the IMF. Our base scenario was always … Become a member to read […]
Argentina: Pro-investment legislation? That’s new!
The government announced this week that it will soon send to the Congress the Law that encourages investments in oil and gas. It is not a Hail Mary play, nor will it be a breaking point, but it is a step forward in the recognition that investments are the only key to long-term gr… […]
Argentina: One Year After the Restructuring, Still Orphans of a Plan
A year ago, Argentina reached an agreement with its main creditors and restructured the public debt in default. That allowed to almost clear the maturities schedule completely. The first year in which the market will see Argentine dollars will be in 2025 when between capital and … Become a member to read the rest […]
Argentina: Elections and Trash Under the Carpet
The economy is already in electoral mode. June was a very good month in terms of economic activity, recovering the setback of May and even more. July was not so good from the point of view of the production of goods, but services are going to bring good news with the reopening. T… Become […]
Argentina: The season of FX stress begins
The last 4 business days of last week the Central Bank had to sell dollars in the FX market so as not to alter the routine of daily devaluation of 3 or 4 cents. The last time it had a seller balance for 3 days in a row was at the end of last November. […]
Argentina: The Economy Dancing the election music
On the weekend the first stage of the primaries closed and therefore the candidates for the legislative elections in November are already outlined. The economy began to rebound in June and the data looks very different from the first half. In the absence of a “delta invasion”, th… Become a member to read the […]
Argentina: The “Cepo” Reloaded
Last weekend the Central Bank and the Securities Commission tightened exchange restrictions, putting more limits on the operation with the most traded sovereign bonds, which are usually used by firms to buy dollars. In addition, it was sought to close some mechanisms that allowed… Become a member to read the rest of this article