Global Letter – Mind the gap: ambition v action
For net-zero GHG emissions pledges to be credible, change needs to happen forthwith Macro-series-Global-Letter-Climate-change-mind-the-gap-December-2020 … Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password
Economic Risks
Secondary dips in activity multiplying before vaccines arrive A US Presidential inauguration surrounded by chaos Inflation falling further and remaining uncomfortably low Fiscal support being extended, further boosting debt ratios Central banks becoming yet more unconvent… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Global Letter: A tale of toggle PIKs
Credit market excesses typically occur in times of low interest rates, when investor demand for higher-yielding instruments leads to the creation of asset classes with returns that, in hindsight, were out of line with the risk involved. So it is of at least prima face concern 1… Become a member to read the rest […]
Global Letter: Groundhog day in Turkey
Turkey has once again succumbed to some of its all too familiar failings. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose We at Llewellyn Consulting have long argued that some economies behave as if they are prisoners of their own history. There often seems to be som… Become a member to read the rest […]
Comment: The importance of inflation expectations
Inflation has been under control for several decades and is historically low. But opinion is now divided: some fear enduring ‘lowflation’; others price instability. Much will depend on the future dynamics of inflation expectations. For now, inflation expectatio… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Economic Risks
OECD: second waves and double dips The first half saw the sharpest and broadest contraction in OECD economic activity since the Great Depression. After a rapid rebound in Q3, when lockdowns were eased, recovery has slackened off in the face of viral resurgences. Per… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Comment – Default Options
The world’s poorer nations are confronted by sharp recessions that threaten to endure. Poverty and inequality are rising rapidly, reversing earlier global income convergence. Public finances are coming under growing duress, and debt distress is mounting. The external liqui… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Global Letter – Cold realities
Broader ramifications of COVID are set to come into sharper relief, not least in the UK. Tough economic times coming Commentary in today’s 24/7 news world tends to be intrinsically incremental. But step back and reflect, and it becomes clear that fundamental c… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Postcard: Staycation in London
Cleaner, less noisy, less polluted, but operating well below capacity. Not being keen on self-isolating, we decided not to travel abroad this year, but rather to have a (ghastly word) ‘staycation’ in London. After all, many people travel far to holiday in London, so why n… Become a member to read the rest of […]
Aggregate demand policy in a time of COVID
Large increases in government expenditure generally necessitate restraint elsewhere However at present significant resources are lying idle: no such sacrifice is needed Hence increases in government exenditure currently need not be financed by borrowing Neither need they b… Become a member to read the rest of this article