China’s era of rapid economic growth dated from 1979 until about a decade ago. Main drivers were: rapid growth in the working-age population; increased participation; employment; longer working hours; and rapid productivity growth. However, over the past decade all four drivers have slowed. Moreover the first three seem almost certain to continue to detract from overall growth. And the fourth seems unlikely to re-accelerate sufficiently to offset this.
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More by Saul Eslake
Focus – China’s continuing growth slowdown
Llewellyn Consulting
October 21, 2021
China’s era of rapid economic growth dated from 1979 until about a decade ago. Main drivers were: rapid growth in the working-age population; increased participation; employment; longer working hours; and rapid productivity growth. However, over
Analysis – What to infer from inflation outliers
Llewellyn Consulting
August 6, 2021
Price shocks, or ‘outliers,’ raise general inflation if they ‘infect’ core prices and wages This happened in the 1970s and early 1980s, on the occasions of the two big oil shocks However, it has not
Trimmed Means
Llewellyn Consulting
July 19, 2021
The ‘Core’ measure of US inflation has risen misleadingly: it seems unlikely virulently to ‘infect’ other prices.
Global Letter – Post-COVID-19: country prospects
Llewellyn Consulting
April 9, 2021
Large country differences in performance are in prospect: and due largely to policy Performance to date Recovery from recession typically takes years – between 3 and 6 before output regains its prerecession level.
Focus – A longer term perspective on China’s economy
Llewellyn Consulting
March 3, 2021
China has racked up extraordinary economic achievements over the past 40 years In so doing it is returning to its historical position in the global ‘pecking order’ In the process China has become surprisingly unequal