August 20, 2021

Macro Series

Analysis – Do not draw false comfort from the IPCC report

BY John Llewellyn, Preston Llewellyn

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( < 1 min)
  • Any serious decision-maker may hope for the best, but plans for a most realistic outcome
  • The IPCC report has some scenarios in which temperature rise is contained to below 2 0 C
  • But the politics of China, the US, India, and Russia make such outcomes unlikely
  • A rise of 3 or even 4 degrees seems much more probable
  • Two conditionally optimistic scenarios might, just might, limit temperature increases

Trimmed Means

( < 1 min) The ‘Core’ measure of US inflation has risen misleadingly: it seems unlikely virulently to ‘infect’ other prices.  

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