September 2, 2021

Macro Series

Focus – The three ‘R’s: Recovery, reallocation, and resilience

BY John Llewellyn, Silja Sepping

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( < 1 min)

Dear Colleague,

Structural policies determine how readily resources move within an economy, and are an important determinant of economic performance. They are especially important when the structure of demand and supply are both changing fast,  as they are now – due to, inter alia, the pandemic, climate change, rapid technological change, and geopolitical pressures.

In this major update of our earlier work, we rank countries’ supply-side policy settings. Our analysis reveals important differences between countries, and some surprising results.

Yours sincerely

Macro-series-Structural-policies-Recovery-Reallocation-and-Resilience-September-2021

Trimmed Means

( < 1 min) The ‘Core’ measure of US inflation has risen misleadingly: it seems unlikely virulently to ‘infect’ other prices.  

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World View & Risks

( < 1 min) Please find attached our foundation document, World View & Risks. Published quarterly, it presents: In two concise summary pages our judgement about the likely behaviour of the principal drivers of the world economy and financial

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Economic recovery and resilience

( < 1 min) The rate to which economic growth settles down will depend on countries’ investment response, including to going digital and green, and the quality of their structural policies.

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Focus – The effects of climate change on productivity

( < 1 min) Global warming stands to have quantitatively important effects on country productivity While most countries will apparently be affected negatively , some may see large gains Canada and Russia could see considerable increases in productivity India

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Global Letter – Post-COVID-19: country prospects

( 5 mins) Large country differences in performance are in prospect: and due largely to policy     Performance to date Recovery from recession typically takes years – between 3 and 6 before output regains its prerecession level.

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