Our product principles and development
We are extending our signature ‘Watch fors’ to our new products The sentiment that “the current situation is more than usually uncertain” tends to be overworked. However, currently that arguably is indeed the case. Perhaps on only two previous post-WWII occasions – the 1… Become a member to read the rest of this […]
Key Developments & Chart of the week
The virus still drives G7 GDP, while the US and China record no significant inflation. Outcome Previous Comment China CPI (Jan; y-o-y) -0.3% 0.2% No signs of consumer price pressures China PPI (Jan; y-o-y) 0.3% … Become a member to read the rest of this article
Global Letter: Rising US inflation concerns
Markets are starting to fret: it is a close call, but we are slightly more sanguine. Inflation is now back on many minds. And this matters because, as go inflation expectations, so go bond yields, and thence asset prices, exposed leveraged entities, official interest… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Key Developments
The virus continues to depress aggregate demand across most OECD economies. Macro series – Key Developments – 7 February 2021… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Comment: Asset prices overvalued? Two views and a conclusion
Shiller’s ‘Excess cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio’ suggests little overvaluation. But a Minsky typology suggests that prices are 5-6 steps out of 9 along the road to crisis. We see no definitive overvaluation yet: but it is Minsky that we shall be monitoring. … Become a member to read the rest of this article
Key Developments
Important economies slowed in Q4. Central banks remain wary. IMF slightly more optimistic. Macro series – Key Developments – 31 Jan 2021… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Global Letter – Structural reform will differentiate countries
Investors would be well advised to pay close attention to how countries’ structural policies rate [pdf-embedder url=”https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Macro-series-Global-Letter-Structural-reform-will-differentiate-January-2021.pdf” title=”Macro series – Global Let… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Economic Risks
Please find attached the January issue of our monthly Economic Risks. Below is a top-level summary: A rampaging virus and lockdowns extend secondary dips Immunisation programmes take time to reach critical mass Bankruptcies, joblessness, poverty, and inequality esca… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Comment – How to look at the RCEP
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a large trade agreement. While it falls short of the US-inspired CPTTP, it will bring a range of benefits. Particularly important will be whether the US and India choose to become associated. Formation and c… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Ten developments to watch for in 2021, and beyond
LlewellynConsulting’s Ten developments to watch for in 2021, and beyond details what we judge most likely to happen; and pays particular attention to detailing what we see as the main risks and uncertainties. There is growing recognition of the existential threat of cl… Become a member to read the rest of this article