Global Letter – Post-COVID-19: country prospects
Large country differences in performance are in prospect: and due largely to policy Performance to date Recovery from recession typically takes years – between 3 and 6 before output regains its prerecession level. 1 But history is probably an… Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail […]
Key Developments & Chart of the week
Economic recovery is proceeding apace in Asia and the US Japan ‘Tankan’ survey Large companies were more positive about business conditions in Q1, and the outlook for Q2,than at any time since Q4 2019, although this was more apparent among manufacturingcompanies tha… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Seeds of the next financial crisis – EM dollar borrowing
Dollar bond issuance by non-US corporates has dominated forex borrowing since 2008. In many EMs, both leverage and currency mismatches have increased. Both increase the risk of corporate insolvencies. And they create new and growing threats to the balance sheets of local b… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Global Letter – Pan Am, the Boeing Stratocruiser, the Fed, and inflation
Pan Am and the Boeing Stratocruiser The following is a parable. Please bear with me. In 1956 my father was flying across the Pacific in a Pan American Airways Boeing Stratocruiser, 1 a propeller plane powered by four huge 28-cylinder 3,500 hp Pratt & Whitney r… Become a member to read the rest of […]
Key Developments & Chart of the week
Strong China supply-side performace. US retail sales fell back, but probably only temporarily [pdf-embedder url=”https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Macro-series-Key-Developments-Chart-of-the-week-19-March-2021.pdf” title=”Macro series – Key Developments & … Become a member to read the rest of this article
Focus: Money and Inflation
Money growth has surged in most economies, the result of aggressive quantitative easing.If money growth is a harbinger of inflation, that would be concerning.In high-inflation 1970s and 80s, money growth was believed inevitably to cause inflation.However, experience since 2000 d… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Key Developments & Chart of the week
Regionally differentiated growth prospects, but overall a bit quicker than earlier seemed likely [pdf-embedder url=”https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Macro-series-Key-Developments-Chart-of-the-week-5-March-2021.pdf” title=”Macro series – Key Developments &… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Focus – A longer term perspective on China’s economy
China has racked up extraordinary economic achievements over the past 40 years In so doing it is returning to its historical position in the global ‘pecking order’ In the process China has become surprisingly unequal for a ‘socialist’ country It is becoming more assertive,… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Key Developments & Chart of the week
Macro series – Key Developments & Chart of the week – 26 February 2021… Become a member to read the rest of this article
World View
The attached World View presents, in one summary page, our judgement on the likely behaviour over the coming year or so, of: The current principal drivers of the world economy; The key economic and market variables, and; ‘Watch Fors’ which represent developments that… Become a member to read the rest of this article