Focus – The three ‘R’s: Recovery, reallocation, and resilience
Dear Colleague, Structural policies determine how readily resources move within an economy, and are an important determinant of economic performance. They are especially important when the structure of demand and supply are both changing fast, as they are now – due to, … Become a member to read the rest of this article Username […]
Key Developments & Chart of the week
Macro-series-Key-Developments-Chart-of-the-week-27-Aug-2021 … Become a member to read the rest of this article
Analysis – Do not draw false comfort from the IPCC report
Any serious decision-maker may hope for the best, but plans for a most realistic outcomeThe IPCC report has some scenarios in which temperature rise is contained to below 2 0 CBut the politics of China, the US, India, and Russia make such outcomes unlikelyA rise of 3 or even 4 d… Become a member […]
Analysis – What to infer from inflation outliers
Price shocks, or ‘outliers,’ raise general inflation if they ‘infect’ core prices and wagesThis happened in the 1970s and early 1980s, on the occasions of the two big oil shocksHowever, it has not happened (in ‘advanced’ economies) since the mid-1990sCurrent conditions do not se… Become a member to read the rest of this article
ECB – the fine line between stimulus and exuberance
Economic conditions and prospects in the euro area have improved. Markets are exuberant, and the ECB expects the pickup in inflation to prove temporary. Soon however the ECB will have to consider when to start ‘leaning against the wind’. Macro-series-ECB-the-fine-line-between-… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Trimmed Means
The ‘Core’ measure of US inflation has risen misleadingly: it seems unlikely virulently to ‘infect’ other prices. [pdf-embedder url=”https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Macro-series-Trimmed-Means-July-2021.pdf” title=”Macro series – Trimmed Means – July 202… Become a member to read the rest of this article
World View & Risks
Please find attached our foundation document, World View & Risks. Published quarterly, it presents: In two concise summary pages our judgement about the likely behaviour of the principal drivers of the world economy and financial markets over the year ahead; the most impor… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Key Developments & Chart of the week
Macro series – Key Developments & Chart of the week – 25 June 2021… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Global Letter – Whither the WTO
The WTO is not top of President Biden’s agenda; but neither is trade being neglected. Macro-series-Whither-the-WTO-June-2021 … Become a member to read the rest of this article
Key Developments & Chart of the week
The attached Key Developments contains our Chart of the Week and the key data and other information from this week that, in our judgement, bear most importantly on the core elements of our World View. [pdf-embedder url=”https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Macro-serie… Become a member to read the rest of this article