report October 29, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week Dear Colleague, The attached Key Developments contains our Chart of the Week and the key data and other information from this week that, in our judgement, bear most importantly on the core elements of our World View. Macro-series-Key-Developments-Chart-of-the-week-29-Octob... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report October 22, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week Dear Colleague, The attached Key Developments contains our Chart of the Week and the key data and other information from this week that, in our judgement, bear most importantly on the core elements of our World View. Macro-series-Key-Developments-Chart-of-the-week-29-October-202... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report October 21, 2021 Focus – China’s continuing growth slowdown China’s era of rapid economic growth dated from 1979 until about a decade ago. Main drivers were: rapid growth in the working-age population; increased participation; employment; longer working hours; and rapid productivity growth. However, over the past decade all four drivers h... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me... By Saul Eslake Llewellyn Consulting
report October 13, 2021 Global GHG reduction – an uncoordinated muddle and mess Global Letter Dear Colleague, COP26 in November faces an impossibly wide spread of national interests to corral into a unified global programme. It has been set up for failure by the clash between ambition&nb... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password... By Jeremy Greenstock Llewellyn Consulting
report October 7, 2021 Global Letter – Investment requirements for a 2C world Dear Colleague, Of the many issues that will be discussed in connection with the forthcoming COP26 meeting, one that need not be is the investment cost of switching to a green economy. The requisite resources will be available: though they seem unlikely to be deployed in time. Ma... Become a member to read the rest of this article... By John Llewellyn, Silja Sepping Llewellyn Consulting
report October 1, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week US PMI strengthens, China’s slows. Inflation steady in US, up in EU. Two more EM countries tighten. Macro-series-World-View-Risks-Limited-version-September-2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report September 30, 2021 World View & Risks Macro-series-World-View-Risks-Limited-version-September-2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password... By John Llewellyn, Saul Eslake Llewellyn Consulting
report September 24, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week US current account deficit widens; Japan’s deflation continues; major central banks are stirring Macro series – Key Developments & Chart of the week – 24 September 2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report September 23, 2021 Germany – economic challenges for the new government In a number of respects the German economy is in a good position after 16 years of Mrs Merkel But there are problems too, including slow growth that is unduly dependent on exports Securing good future performance will require that policy be made holistically, not piecemeal Parti... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username... By Michael Heise Llewellyn Consulting
report September 17, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week US inflation eases back, China’s output growth slows, Euro-area inflation stays contained. Macro series – Key Developments & Chart of the week – 17 September 2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report September 2, 2021 Focus – The three ‘R’s: Recovery, reallocation, and resilience Dear Colleague, Structural policies determine how readily resources move within an economy, and are an important determinant of economic performance. They are especially important when the structure of demand and supply are both changing fast, as they are now – due to, inte... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember... By John Llewellyn, Silja Sepping Llewellyn Consulting
report August 27, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week Macro-series-Key-Developments-Chart-of-the-week-27-Aug-2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report August 20, 2021 Analysis – Do not draw false comfort from the IPCC report Any serious decision-maker may hope for the best, but plans for a most realistic outcome The IPCC report has some scenarios in which temperature rise is contained to below 2 0 C But the politics of China, the US, India, and Russia make such outcomes unlikely A rise of 3 or even ... Become a member to read... By John Llewellyn, Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report August 6, 2021 Analysis – What to infer from inflation outliers Price shocks, or ‘outliers,’ raise general inflation if they ‘infect’ core prices and wages This happened in the 1970s and early 1980s, on the occasions of the two big oil shocks However, it has not happened (in ‘advanced’ economies) since the mid-1990s Current conditions do not... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or... By John Llewellyn, Saul Eslake Llewellyn Consulting
report July 19, 2021 ECB – the fine line between stimulus and exuberance Economic conditions and prospects in the euro area have improved. Markets are exuberant, and the ECB expects the pickup in inflation to prove temporary. Soon however the ECB will have to consider when to start ‘leaning against the wind’. Macro-series-ECB-the-fine-line-between-sti... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me ... By Michael Heise Llewellyn Consulting
report July 19, 2021 Trimmed Means The ‘Core’ measure of US inflation has risen misleadingly: it seems unlikely virulently to ‘infect’ other prices. Macro series – Trimmed Means – July 2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password... By John Llewellyn, Saul Eslake Llewellyn Consulting
report June 29, 2021 World View & Risks Please find attached our foundation document, World View & Risks. Published quarterly, it presents: In two concise summary pages our judgement about the likely behaviour of the principal drivers of the world economy and financial markets over the year ahead; the most importa... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember... By John Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report June 26, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week Macro series – Key Developments & Chart of the week – 25 June 2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report June 21, 2021 Global Letter – Whither the WTO The WTO is not top of President Biden’s agenda; but neither is trade being neglected. Macro-series-Whither-the-WTO-June-2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password... By Jonathan Fried Llewellyn Consulting
report June 18, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week The attached Key Developments contains our Chart of the Week and the key data and other information from this week that, in our judgement, bear most importantly on the core elements of our World View. Macro series – Key Developments & Chart of the week – 18 June 2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report June 17, 2021 Focus – Current account imbalances Current account imbalances, such as between the US and the EU, serve a purpose. But it is possible to have too much of a good thing. The longer the imbalance stays large, the greater the likelihood of a reaction. That could come either from US or European politicians, or from mar... Become a member to read the rest... By John Llewellyn, Philip Turner Llewellyn Consulting
report June 2, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week A US-heavy week: US core inflation has jumped, as have consumer inflation expectations Macro series – Key Developments & Chart of the week – 28 May 2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report May 28, 2021 Economic recovery and resilience The rate to which economic growth settles down will depend on countries’ investment response, including to going digital and green, and the quality of their structural policies. Macro series – Economic recovery and resilience – May 2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password... By John Llewellyn, Silja Sepping Llewellyn Consulting
report May 18, 2021 Analysis – The surge of Germany’s Greens could change the country Germany’s political landscape seems about to change, with the rise of the Green party under its charismatic leader Annalena Baerbock. Germany’s September election seems likely to result in a coalition government of the Greens, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the Liberals. T... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me... By Michael Heise Llewellyn Consulting
report May 14, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week US gyrations continue: last week, soft employment; this week, soft sales but a price surge. Macro series – Key Developments & Chart of the week – 14 May 2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
