UK/EU: Some form of deadline every week, until mid-November
After another week of future relationship talks in London and Brussels, 3 November emerges as the next iteration in the negotiations between the EU and the UK. By then, the question will be whether both sides have made enough progress in the talks so far to perhaps involve PM Bo… Become a member to […]
Global Letter – Cold realities
Broader ramifications of COVID are set to come into sharper relief, not least in the UK. Tough economic times coming Commentary in today’s 24/7 news world tends to be intrinsically incremental. But step back and reflect, and it becomes clear that fundamental c… Become a member to read the rest of this article
UK/EU: Towards a “Merkron Moment”?
Despite the UK’s 15 October deadline for the future relationship talks, PM Boris Johnson’s government remains willing to negotiate with the EU beyond the 15-16 October European Council. Both sides have therefore treated their respective ultimatums in a similar fashion: the EU’s i… Become a member to read the rest of this article
UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy
Sterling has enjoyed a strong, if bumpy ride, since late-June. It has been the second strongest major currency against the US Dollar and appreciated 3.7% in NEER term, thanks in part to a build-up of speculative long-Sterling positions. Markets have seemingly taken heart from g… Become a member to read the rest of this […]
Post Card – Estonia: A country of many faces
Natural beauty and tech savviness make this small state a perfect remote-working destination I write this overlooking a quiet bay on the Western coast of Estonia. Nearest civilization is about half an hour’s drive away. The only background ‘noise’ is crickets and birds. Estoni… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Household balance sheets will deteriorate as joblessness rises
This stands to feed back negatively on the financial sector 1. Consumer credit write-offs typically rise with unemployment. − Interesting data from the Bank of England show that each 1-point ri… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Comment: Britain and the tyranny of nostalgia
Britain has now been in relative economic decline for the better part of 150 years.Many of the reasons for this were first identified as long ago as the Victorian era.Pyrrhic victories in two world wars only deepened the country’s underlying malaise.An enduring obsession with th… Become a member to read the rest of this […]
FOCUS: Hard labour – the post-pandemic jobs market
Countries’ labour markets have been hit hard by COVID-19; and the UK more than mostThe UK is a microcosm of effects likely to be seen worldwideThe young, the poor, women, and some minority groups seem destined to suffer disproportionatelyImmediate and longer-standing inequalitie… Become a member to read the rest of this article
UK/EU: No extension request in June, but not yet a cliff edge in December
Negotiation teams will this week convene for one final round of talks before the highly anticipated leaders’ meeting later in June, but the slow progress so far renders a breakthrough unlikely. As the deadline to extend the transition period beyond 31 December is looming at the … Become a member to read the rest […]
EUROPE: The politics of exit strategies
This piece provides an updated overview of the lockdown exit strategies currently being implemented by selected European governments, and the surrounding politics. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Italy L… Become a member to read the rest of this article