Transitional UK budget unlikely to rattle markets
The British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will on 3rd March, at around 12.30 UK time, present to the House of Commons the annual budget for the United Kingdom. The ruling Conservative Party has a significant working majority of 87 seats in the lowe… Become a member to read the rest of this […]
UK: Vaccination success leads to lockdown and fiscal debates
The country’s stellar vaccination performance has had two implications on the policy front. First, the provision of a first vaccine shot to the 15mn most vulnerable people has raised the expectations for an easing of lockdown measures, to which the government responded in its roa… Become a member to read the rest of this […]
UK/EU: Commission’s vaccine fiasco has repercussions for Irish protocol talks
As talks continue about the implementation of the Brexit deal’s Northern Ireland protocol, partial extensions to the current grace period are the most likely outcome beyond 1 April. The grace period currently still limits the degree to which the UK has to implement new border con… Become a member to read the rest of […]
UK/EU: New year, new deadlines, new (slow-moving) drama
As anticipated, both sides agreed on a zero tariffs/quota trade deal just in time for Christmas. But the limited nature of the deal leaves many questions unanswered, chief among them the outlook for the (financial) services sector. Respective talks began this week, as a first dea… Become a member to read the rest of […]
UK/EU: Deal or delay?
Speculation has been growing that a post-Brexit trade deal will be announced before or on 24 December. In true Brexit fashion, however, earlier expectations for an imminent presentation of a deal turned out to have been too optimistic. As discussed in the past, a deal before ye… Become a member to read the rest […]
UK/EU: Why in Brussels, arbitration must not be called arbitration
As the negotiations about a post-Brexit trade agreement continue, level playing field provisions and their enforcement remain the central stumbling block. However, the EU’s position has continued to shift away from earlier ideas of “dynamic alignment” and its upfront enforcemen… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Sunday bloody Sunday
Sterling underperformed in September, in line with our bearish forecast (UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy, 4th September 2020). It gradually recovered from 22nd September, appreciated throughout October and peaked on 27th November. Sterling NEER has si… Become a member to read the rest of this article
UK/EU: High-level meeting could kick the can further down the road
The upcoming meeting between PM Boris Johnson and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen might be what is needed to finally get a trade deal signed off – or at least to prevent a collapse of the negotiations ahead of time. Johnson’s direct involvement is positive, because at… Become a member to read the […]
UK: The electoral politics behind the fiscal debate
Ahead of the chancellor’s 25 November spending review, the UK’s future fiscal and economic trajectory is again in the spotlight. The departure of Brexit mastermind Dominic Cummings from Downing Street has, in many quarters, fueled hopes for a quick return to the more benign … Become a member to read the rest of this […]
UK/EU: Headlines and deadlines
The unofficial 15 November deadline will pass this coming Sunday, but both sides continue their talks. At the same time, personnel changes in Downing Street have created headlines over recent hours. But more importantly, there is still at least about a month left for both sides… Become a member to read the rest of […]