Rafael Aguilar

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• August 28, 2023

Argentina | MONTHLY EconViews #230 – August, 2023

Download report The PASO primaries changed the electoral outlook The primary elections came with many surprises. The big winner was Javier Milei, who was in the radar and was thought to be competitive, though nobody expected that he would end...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• August 23, 2023

Argentina | The Week at a Glance- August 22nd, 2023

Download report Editorial: The Problems of Dollarization Javier Milei's victory brought into focus the dollarization plan for which the candidate for president has been fighting. Our opinion is that dollarization is a plan that should be considered as a...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• August 15, 2023

Argentina | A Black Swan With All the Options Open

Editorial: A Black Swan With All the Options Open The result of the primary election in Argentina delivered important surprises. Javier Milei, who was supposed to come third, emerged as the winner. His party obtained 30.04% of the votes...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• August 14, 2023

Flash Report – A black swan with all the options open

The result of the primary election in Argentina delivered important surprises. Javier Milei, who was supposed to come third, emerged as the winner. His party obtained 30.04% of the votes followed by Juntos por el Cambio (main opposition) with...

• By Andrés Borenstein, Miguel A. Kiguel

• EconViews

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• August 7, 2023

The Central Bank Walks on the Tightrope

Editorial: The Central Bank Walks on the TightropeWhen hiring staff at the Central Bank, they should put experience as a tightrope walker or juggler as exclusive requirements. Clearly that ability came into play in these last few days. On...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• August 3, 2023

Argentina | Base Scenario – July 2023

Dear clients and friends, We share with you our report "Base Scenario Econviews" that includes projections of the main macroeconomic variables until 2025. We hope you find it useful. For questions or comments about this report, please contact Andrés Borenstein. Be...  ...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• July 31, 2023

Argentina | A Last-Minute Deal with the IMF

Editorial: A Last-Minute Deal with the IMF Finally, the famous “staff-level agreement” was closed and the IMF promises a disbursement of 7.5 billion dollars in August, an amount that will basically cover principal and interest payments until November. Although...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• July 28, 2023

Argentina Averted the Chasm with the IMF Agreement

Argentina Averted the Chasm with the IMF Agreement, Though Fragility Is Still the Name of the Game The economic discussions have been dominated by the day-to-day developments in the negotiations between Argentina and the IMF. The other key piece...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews

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• July 24, 2023

Argentina | Distortions Upon Distortions to Muddle Through

Editorial: Distortions Upon Distortions to Muddle Through The government continues negotiating with the IMF, but there is nothing concrete yet. Econviews' thesis is that one way or another there will be an agreement such that at least the IMF...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Delfina Colacilli, Miguel A. Kiguel, Pamela Morales, Rafael Aguilar

• EconViews, Speevr Intelligence

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• March 3, 2023

Argentina: The FX Spread Widens and Messes (even more) The Economy

The official exchange rate remains tamed. On average, the dollar rose 1% in October, 1.1% in September and 1% in August. Well below inflation, that averaged more than 3% per month. It is true that in the last week...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel

• EconViews

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• October 25, 2021

Argentina: Orderly or Messy Adjustment?

When the legislative elections of November 14 pass, all eyes will return almost exclusively to the economy. Once the results are digested, the question will be how Argentina will resolve the many imbalances that are beginning to grow. They...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel

• EconViews

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• October 13, 2021

Argentina: New “Cepo”, Old Problems, No Solutions

Last week the Central Bank again intensified the “cepo”, cutting import payments and making the operation of alternative dollars even more restrictive. You could see it coming. The sale of reserves was unsustainable, and it did not seem very...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Miguel A. Kiguel

• EconViews

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• October 4, 2021

Argentina: Transitory Needs and Permanent Problems

This week the government announced a plan for 55-year-old women and 60-year-old men to obtain their retirement if they are unemployed and meet a contribution requirement. The logic of the measure is that it is not easy for this...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Miguel A. Kiguel

• EconViews

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• September 27, 2021

Argentina: Open for Business

“High-Beta” is one of the most used analogies to describe the Argentine economy. There is a mathematical reason for that. Argentina is not the economy with the worst performance in a medium-term perspective compared to a large sample of...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Miguel A. Kiguel

• EconViews

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• September 24, 2021

Argentina: Special Analysis on Public debt. Will it be sustainable this time?

I. A poor election and a Government under pressure Inflation, the exchange rate, and economic activity are moving in election mode. The government is using all its firepower to keep the main economic variables under control. Inflation, which had...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel

• EconViews

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• September 21, 2021

Argentina: More Short-Term Uncertainty, an Opportunity in the Long Term

The results of the primary elections were surprising, as well as how quickly internal tensions escalated within the ruling coalition. The market's vote was a cautiously optimistic one, recognizing that the short term is fraught with problems, although the...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel

• EconViews

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• September 14, 2021

Argentina: The Current Rate of Intervention Is Unsustainable

The BCRA sold more than 800 million dollars since the FX market changed from positive to negative on August 26. There are several factors behind that. There were companies that canceled debts in dollars, banks that had reduced their...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Miguel A. Kiguel

• EconViews

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• September 8, 2021

Argentina: Waiting for the budget

On September 15, 3 days after the primary elections, Congress will receive from Martín Guzmán the budget bill for 2022. Although the budget has not traditionally had the importance in Argentina that it usually has in other democracies thanks...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel

• EconViews

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• August 31, 2021

Argentina: Agreement With the IMF: One More Round Is Missing

This week, Argentine financial asset prices soared. Some say that the polls are bad for the government and that is good for the markets. Others attribute the rally to the versions that circulated in the press about an imminent...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel

• EconViews

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• August 26, 2021

Argentina: Special Analysis on Construction and Real Estate

I. Is there a way to turnaround the economy? Inflation, the exchange rate, and economic activity are moving in election mode. The government is using all its firepower to keep the main economic variables under control. Inflation, which had...

• By Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Isaías Marini, Lorena Giorgio, Miguel A. Kiguel

• EconViews