report October 19, 2021 PHILIPPINES: Sara Duterte may really be out of the running The probability that Sara Duterte may not run for the presidency has increased. The nominal beneficiary is Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., the son of the former autocrat, who may emerge as the front-runner in a Duterte-less race. Polling this early... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report October 19, 2021 HUNGARY: Primaries bolster opposition, but challenges remain Primaries gave the opposition bloc an early boost ahead of the general election scheduled for spring 2022. The newly elected opposition leader Peter Marki-Zay poses a formidable challenge to incumbent Viktor Orban. Both opposition and the ruling Fidesz still... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report October 19, 2021 CHINA: ‘Common prosperity’ is more reform than revolution A newly published speech by President Xi Jinping and a pilot project in Zhejiang province are important signals about the Communist Party's "common prosperity" agenda to address social inequality. These signals suggest a long-term program of tighter regulation, improved... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report October 14, 2021 JAPAN: Spend-and-defend manifesto continues LDP’s buy now, pay later approach The ruling LDP's Lower House election manifesto contains new policy emphases in several areas including the economy, health crisis response, and energy, but omits key proposals in each area. On foreign policy, there are notable developments relating to Taiwan,... By James Brady Teneo
report October 14, 2021 SOUTHEAST ASIA: Reopening to tourists, plus some vaccine hesitancy Across much of the region, countries are accelerating their plans to reopen their economies to foreign tourists. Several factors -- but primarily rising rates of vaccination and pressure from business groups and small and medium enterprises -- are raising... By Bob Herrera-Lim Teneo
report October 14, 2021 ITALY: Draghi’s “Black Friday”? All workers will be required to show a Covid-19 health pass from 15 October, one of the world's toughest anti-Covid regimes that has already sparked riots and which may cause chaos in the days ahead. Around 2.2-2.5 million of... By Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report October 14, 2021 EUROPE: Managing the pandemic – what we are watching This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. United... By Andrius Tursa, Antonio Barroso, Carsten Nickel, Wolfango Piccoli Teneo
report October 14, 2021 EUROPE: CEE PULSE Bulgaria's National Recovery and Resilience Plan is ready for submission to the European Commission. In the Czech Republic, the newly elected Chamber of Deputies is scheduled to hold its first sitting on 8 November. On 16 October, Hungary's opposition... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report October 13, 2021 ARGENTINA: Gridlock likely and governability crisis possible after mid-terms The governing Front for All (FdT) coalition will struggle to avoid a damaging defeat in November's partial mid-term elections. The government is hoping to limit its losses with unabashed clientelism, but FdT power struggles and highly problematic economic conditions... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report October 13, 2021 EMERGING MARKETS: Covid-19 Vaccinations and Challenges Our Covid-19 vaccination table includes updated information on the immunization strategies selected EMs are pursuing and the challenges they face. Below are some of the latest developments. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report October 13, 2021 CHINA: “Negative list” may force private capital to divest from news media China's state planning agency updated its Market Entry Negative List with what appear to be tighter restrictions on private investment in news media and internet livestreaming. The Negative List is not new policy, but annual changes to the list... By Gabriel Wildau Teneo
report October 12, 2021 UK/EU: Brexit tensions return – Next steps Following remarks by UK Minister of State Lord Frost in Lisbon today, EU Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will on 13 October unveil proposals to simplify the operation of the Northern Ireland protocol. The EU will offer that items of cultural... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report October 12, 2021 CHILE: Presidential race favors leftist Boric but voter indecision still high A second candidates' debate took place last night, 11 October, just under six weeks from the first round of the presidential election on 21 November, and with the leftist Gabriel Boric enjoying a consistent poll lead, albeit with voter... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report October 12, 2021 POLAND: Implications of the Constitutional Tribunal ruling The deepening rule of law dispute between Warsaw and Brussels heightens the risk of further restrictions on Poland's access to EU funds. Reduced EU funding and rising concerns about Poland's future membership in the EU could erode voter support... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report October 12, 2021 MACRO: Policy responses to Covid-19 Below is our updated bi-weekly summary table on the health and economic policies that selected governments are implementing around the world. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report October 11, 2021 UK: After conference season, the policy work begins It is important not to read too much into the annual gatherings of the party faithful. However, the Conservative conference reflected that PM Boris Johnson is very much in control of his party. No serious cabinet or backbench rebellions... By Carsten Nickel Teneo
report October 11, 2021 LATAM PULSE This week, Chile's President Sebastian Pinera faces a bumpy ride as he seeks to defend himself from allegations arising from the "Pandora Papers" leak; at the same time, another presidential debate takes place later today. In Mexico, President Andres... By Nicholas Watson Teneo
report October 11, 2021 WEEKLY POLITICAL COMPASS The US and China held virtual trade-related talks. Tensions are rising in the relationship between the UK and the EU. Japan's new PM will dissolve the Diet. Argentina's finance minister will attend the annual IMF meetings. Meanwhile, candidate registration... By Teneo Macro Teneo
report October 11, 2021 RUSSIA/UKRAINE: US-German deal on Nord Stream 2 gives Moscow leverage over Kyiv The US-German agreement allowing the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline represents a political victory for Moscow. Nord Stream 2 is expected to substantially lower Russian gas shipments through Ukraine after 2024 thereby limiting Kyiv's revenue from transit... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
report October 10, 2021 CZECH REPUBLIC: Opposition wins but government formation depends on Zeman The three-party center-right coalition Together achieved an unexpected victory in the 8-9 October elections for the lower chamber of parliament and is best- positioned to form the next government. However, the timing and process of government formation depends on... By Andrius Tursa Teneo
