CHINA: Power shortages lead to durable market reforms
Severe power rationing has led to significant long-term reforms to China’s electricity pricing system that go beyond emergency stop-gap measures. Under the new system, coal-powered generators can pass on higher coal prices to electricity users; the changes also force coal generators into direct competition from lower-priced renewables. Still, the Communist Party’s short-term focus on shoring […]
Sri Lanka: Facing an economic crisis – but IMF is not an option (for now)
Low revenue from tourism, plummeting foreign remittances and legacy debts from the sovereign bond market are pushing Sri Lanka in the general direction of default This is exacerbated by errors in the island’s tea-production strategy However, help from multilateral lending institutions will be the last option for the government because of the conditions these will […]
MYANMAR: What ASEAN’s exclusion of the junta means
In an uncharacteristic rebuke, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) this week barred coup and junta leader Gen Min Aung Hlaing — chair of the junta’s State Administration Council (SAC) and the “interim prime minister” — from attending its summit from 26-28 October. The group said only a non-political representative from Myanmar could participate. […]
JAPAN: TINA, turnout, and structural advantages make LDP the best electoral bet
Mistrust of the opposition, down-trending turnouts, and structural advantages in the electoral system all help make the LDP a safe bet in the 31 October general election. Opposition parties’ hopes depend on improved turnout and a coordination pact, but they don’t have strong expectations of taking power this time. New Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s talk […]
SOUTH KOREA: On regional foreign policy, Seoul approaches a fork in the road
Kim Jong-un’s recent overtures are designed to drive wedges between South Korea and the US and between progressives and conservatives domestically; they speak to the real choice emerging in terms of Seoul’s regional foreign policy ahead of the March presidential election. While Moon Jae-in’s ruling progressive Democratic Party (DP) continues to say the right things […]
PHILIPPINES: Sara Duterte may really be out of the running
The probability that Sara Duterte may not run for the presidency has increased. The nominal beneficiary is Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., the son of the former autocrat, who may emerge as the front-runner in a Duterte-less race. Polling this early in the race could show substantial volatility, and some clarity may only emerge in December. In […]
CHINA: ‘Common prosperity’ is more reform than revolution
A newly published speech by President Xi Jinping and a pilot project in Zhejiang province are important signals about the Communist Party’s “common prosperity” agenda to address social inequality. These signals suggest a long-term program of tighter regulation, improved public services, and conservative moralism – not a Maoist program of radical wealth re-distribution or a […]
JAPAN: Spend-and-defend manifesto continues LDP’s buy now, pay later approach
The ruling LDP’s Lower House election manifesto contains new policy emphases in several areas including the economy, health crisis response, and energy, but omits key proposals in each area. On foreign policy, there are notable developments relating to Taiwan, China, and defense spending, but vague language avoids concrete commitments. The take-aways are that Kishida does […]
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Reopening to tourists, plus some vaccine hesitancy
Across much of the region, countries are accelerating their plans to reopen their economies to foreign tourists. Several factors — but primarily rising rates of vaccination and pressure from business groups and small and medium enterprises — are raising policymakers’ willingness to ease restrictions. Inbound tourism plans Thailand has the most advanced implementation of the […]
CHINA: “Negative list” may force private capital to divest from news media
China’s state planning agency updated its Market Entry Negative List with what appear to be tighter restrictions on private investment in news media and internet livestreaming. The Negative List is not new policy, but annual changes to the list can signal shifts to Beijing’s enforcement priorities or its interpretation of existing laws, regulations, and Srate […]
