@JapanMadvisors Japan Macro Advisors Independent macroeconomic research on Bank of Japan policy and Japanese interest rates, by Takuji Okubo — formerly Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Société Générale, and Japan Macro Advisors.
report October 15, 2026 BoJ’s Koeda Points to a Longer Hiking Cycle Her potential-growth example implies a neutral rate around 2.8%, above the Bank's published 2.5% ceiling and well above today's 1.25% policy rate... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report October 15, 2026 The Great Yen Rebalancing GPIF, households and the FDI: The capital outflow that sank the yen for 15 years are now rebalancing back to yen... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report October 14, 2026 The BoJ Has Reasons Not to Hike Too Soon Bank loan growth is showing an early sign of moderation. Higher debt service costs affect SMEs disproportionally. The BoJ has good reason to be patient before the next hike... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report October 10, 2026 Japan Inc. Now Sells No Yen to Invest Abroad Earnings on Japan’s foreign direct investment (FDI) reached 103% of new FDI in 2022–25. With dividends and retained earnings counted together, Japan Inc. now need to sell little yen to invest abroad... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report October 4, 2026 Tokyo CPI Jump Wont Bring Forward a BoJ Hike Tokyo inflation rose, but the BoJ remains focused on underlying trends, delaying rate hikes until 2027... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report October 1, 2026 The BoJ Is in No Hurry for the Next Hike Market misprices BoJ's December hike; September remarks reveal growing caution among members... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report September 24, 2026 The Market Misprices a BoJ December Hike BoJ signals patience, citing weak domestic demand and financial considerations, challenging aggressive market hike expectations... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report September 21, 2026 Mrs Watanabe No More Speculative FX trading was the key feature of Japanese retail investors. No more. Buy-and-hold strategy has become is mainstay. I explain the arc of Japanese retail investors over the last 5 decades... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report September 18, 2026 BoJ Ueda: Virtually no chance of an October hike Governor Ueda forcefully guides down market expectations for immediate rate increases... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report September 13, 2026 BoJ Preview: September Hike, Then Patience BoJ's September hike is imminent, but expect a prolonged pause, with Masu Kazuyuki emerging as a surprising moderate... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report September 10, 2026 Yen Repatriation Starts with the Whale GPIF, one of the largest national pension funds in the world, is likely to rebalance its assets from non-yen bonds to yen bonds, signaling a big turn in Japan's cross-border capital flows.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report September 4, 2026 Using PSI to predict the next BoJ policy decision BoJ will decide its policy on September 18. In this article, I read each board member through Policy Stance Indicator and explain the likely outcome, 7-2 for hike.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report September 4, 2026 BoJ Policy Stance Indicator — The Primer BoJ-PSI assesses the policy stance of each board member at every meeting and every speech. It uses text analysis to attribute anonymous remarks in the BoJ minutes to individual members.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report August 30, 2026 Mark Carney’s Stag Hunt Canada cannot win a trade war against the US solo, and Carney knows it. In this article, I explain the global trade war through a game theory lens, and show the real game Carney is playing.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report August 22, 2026 We Don’t Judge Canada by Its Gross Debt Gross debt to GDP ratio is over-rated as a key fiscal indicator. I explain why a gross debt ratio can mislead, least of all the "Japan’s 250% debt to GDP" slogan... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report August 19, 2026 The Land of the Slowly Rising Coupon Japan's net interest payments will remain the lowest among the Indebted Five: US, UK, France, Italy and Japan... Japan Macro Advisors
report August 17, 2026 Ten charts to Monitor the BoJ’s QE Exit — Part 1 I present BoJ QT monitor. In part 1, I focus on how far the BoJ's JGB ownership fell, who filled the gap and what happens to public sector debt duration when you consolidate BoJ reserves into it.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report August 11, 2026 The BoJ’s Equity Bet Is Paying for QE Exit BoJ's ¥100+ trn equity ETF portfolio covers what it loses on its bonds. The same portfolio is the only channel through which the exit can break the Bank.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report August 5, 2026 Good-bye USD Dominance, Hello Again JPY The yen has been making a quiet comeback as a global currency. As a share of global FX reserves, its share rose from 3.4% in 2009 to 5.8% in 2025, despite the headwind of yen depreciation.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report August 3, 2026 The Warsh Factor in the JGB Curve The US bond market is charging a risk premium as the new Fed chair obfuscates. About a quarter of that lands on JGBs, raising 10Y about 10bp at end-2026.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
