Takuji Okubo (formerly Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Société Générale, and Japan Macro Advisors) provides an in-depth analysis of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy trajectory, interest rate forecasts, and the structural dynamics of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market.
SLIDES
00:00 – Introduction & Professional Background
01:13 – BOJ Policy Rates vs. Long-Term Nominal Anchors
05:35 – BOJ Policy Stance Indicator (PSI) Board Matrix
07:16 – PSI Methodology & Analyzing Policy Speeches/Minutes
10:11 – Case Study: Tracking Board Member Shifts (Nakagawa)
11:38 – Historic Shifts in the JGB Market
12:24 – ACM Term Structure Modeling & Long-Run Inflation Expectations
16:06 – 10-Year JGB Term Premia Estimates & Normalization
17:56 – Super-Long Term Premia (30-Year & 40-Year Bonds)
19:28 – BOJ Ownership Breakdown Across JGB Sectors (Over 25-Year Maturity)
21:28 – Life Insurance Asset Managers' Yield Forecast Track Record
23:10 – Technical Breakdown: Coupon Concentration & Duration Preference
24:45 – Auction Demand Trends in Super-Long JGBs
25:37 – Institutional Investor Sentiment & Quotes
26:29 – Sovereign Debt Sustainability & Gross Debt-to-GDP Evaluation
28:30 – Summary & Market Outlook (Bonds, Japanese Yen, Equities & Fiscal Policy)