Takuji Okubo

Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo — formerly Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Société Générale, and Japan Macro Advisors.

Most recent by Takuji Okubo

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August 5, 2026

Good-bye USD Dominance, Hello Again JPY

The yen has been making a quiet comeback as a global currency. As a share of global FX reserves, its share rose from 3.4% in 2009 to 5.8% in 2025, despite the headwind of yen depreciation....

By Takuji Okubo

Japan Macro Advisors

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August 3, 2026

The Warsh Factor in the JGB Curve

The US bond market is charging a risk premium as the new Fed chair obfuscates. About a quarter of that lands on JGBs, raising 10Y about 10bp at end-2026....

By Takuji Okubo

Japan Macro Advisors

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July 31, 2026

Japan Cashes In Its National Carry Trade

Japan bought its dollars at ¥114 and is selling them at ¥160....

By Takuji Okubo

Japan Macro Advisors

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July 20, 2026

The Long Climb in JGB Yields Is Nearly Over

JGB yields saw a historic rise between 2022-2026. Most of the rise came from higher inflation expectations and a normalization of term premia. Our analysis shows the Long Climb is likely nearly over....

By Takuji Okubo

Japan Macro Advisors

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July 16, 2026

Japan’s Fiscal Vigilantes Are Misreading the Curve

The JGB curve's shape shows fiscal fear is not the primary driver for the rise in long term bond yields...

By Takuji Okubo

Japan Macro Advisors

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July 1, 2026

Mercy for a Central Bank in a Vice

The vice that held the Bank of Japan for four months loosened this morning....

By Takuji Okubo

Japan Macro Advisors

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June 25, 2026

BoJ Steps Up Its Verbal Yen-Intervention

The Bank implicitly communicates that defending the yen is now part of its rate hike framework...

By Takuji Okubo

Japan Macro Advisors