Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research @JapanMadvisors Takuji Okubo — formerly Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Société Générale, and Japan Macro Advisors.
report November 12, 2026 BoJ Asada No Longer a Die-Hard Dove He will still vote to hold in December, but he now accepts that rates may need to rise eventually, although at a slow pace... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report November 10, 2026 The BoJ’s Swing Votes Are Splitting Apart I expect a 7–2 hold in December, with a 6–3 split possible if Koeda flips. Consumer spending remains below its May peak, and a sharp drop in Chinese tourists is hurting domestic demand... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report November 8, 2026 JGB Yields Have Probably Peaked JGB yields have probably peaked for this cycle. I expect additional BoJ hikes, but none before March 2027, while asset rebalancing back to yen supports JGBs... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report October 30, 2026 BoJs Ueda Keeps Both Doors Open BoJ more than doubled the pace of its ETF sales, a form of tightening in financial condition... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report October 22, 2026 JMA Monthly #1: The Inaugural Issue In this inaugural issue of JMA Monthly, I look at the BoJ’s progress in quantitative tightening and what it means for the JGB market... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report October 20, 2026 Yen Repatriation: The Tide Is Turning From 2014 to 2025, Japan bought foreign securities worth about 2% of GDP a year. In 2026 the tide is turning. Banks are selling foreign bonds and capital flow has turned to a small net inflow... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report October 15, 2026 BoJ’s Koeda Points to a Longer Hiking Cycle Her potential-growth example implies a neutral rate around 2.8%, above the Bank's published 2.5% ceiling and well above today's 1.25% policy rate... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report October 15, 2026 The Great Yen Rebalancing GPIF, households and the FDI: The capital outflow that sank the yen for 15 years are now rebalancing back to yen... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report October 14, 2026 The BoJ Has Reasons Not to Hike Too Soon Bank loan growth is showing an early sign of moderation. Higher debt service costs affect SMEs disproportionally. The BoJ has good reason to be patient before the next hike... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report October 10, 2026 Japan Inc. Now Sells No Yen to Invest Abroad Earnings on Japan’s foreign direct investment (FDI) reached 103% of new FDI in 2022–25. With dividends and retained earnings counted together, Japan Inc. now need to sell little yen to invest abroad... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report October 4, 2026 Tokyo CPI Jump Wont Bring Forward a BoJ Hike Tokyo inflation rose, but the BoJ remains focused on underlying trends, delaying rate hikes until 2027... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report October 1, 2026 The BoJ Is in No Hurry for the Next Hike Market misprices BoJ's December hike; September remarks reveal growing caution among members... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report September 24, 2026 The Market Misprices a BoJ December Hike BoJ signals patience, citing weak domestic demand and financial considerations, challenging aggressive market hike expectations... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report September 21, 2026 Mrs Watanabe No More Speculative FX trading was the key feature of Japanese retail investors. No more. Buy-and-hold strategy has become is mainstay. I explain the arc of Japanese retail investors over the last 5 decades... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report September 18, 2026 BoJ Ueda: Virtually no chance of an October hike Governor Ueda forcefully guides down market expectations for immediate rate increases... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report September 13, 2026 BoJ Preview: September Hike, Then Patience BoJ's September hike is imminent, but expect a prolonged pause, with Masu Kazuyuki emerging as a surprising moderate... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report September 10, 2026 Yen Repatriation Starts with the Whale GPIF, one of the largest national pension funds in the world, is likely to rebalance its assets from non-yen bonds to yen bonds, signaling a big turn in Japan's cross-border capital flows.... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report September 4, 2026 Using PSI to predict the next BoJ policy decision BoJ will decide its policy on September 18. In this article, I read each board member through Policy Stance Indicator and explain the likely outcome, 7-2 for hike.... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report September 4, 2026 BoJ Policy Stance Indicator — The Primer BoJ-PSI assesses the policy stance of each board member at every meeting and every speech. It uses text analysis to attribute anonymous remarks in the BoJ minutes to individual members.... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
report August 30, 2026 Mark Carney’s Stag Hunt Canada cannot win a trade war against the US solo, and Carney knows it. In this article, I explain the global trade war through a game theory lens, and show the real game Carney is playing.... By Takuji Okubo Yen Macro Research
