ECUADOR: Unstoppable force (Lasso) meets immovable object (National Assembly)
President Guillermo Lasso’s so-called “mega-bill” of reforms faces a complex path in the National Assembly (AN). The government has been talking openly about its “plan B” for a public referendum if/when the reforms reach a dead end in the legislature. Lasso’s popularity co… Become a member to read the rest of this article Username […]
Argentina: Open for Business
“High-Beta” is one of the most used analogies to describe the Argentine economy. There is a mathematical reason for that. Argentina is not the economy with the worst performance in a medium-term perspective compared to a large sample of developed and emerging countries. But it do… Become a member to read the rest of […]
LATAM PULSE
This week, Peru’s government is in another muddle of its own making – this time over a threat to nationalize natural gas resources – while Congress will keep the Pedro Castillo administration on the backfoot. In Mexico, energy policy in the downstream sector returns to the politi… Become a member to read the rest […]
Argentina: Special Analysis on Public debt. Will it be sustainable this time?
I. A poor election and a Government under pressure Inflation, the exchange rate, and economic activity are moving in election mode. The government is using all its firepower to keep the main economic variables under control. Inflation, which had reached 4.8% in March is now hove… Become a member to read the rest of […]
BRAZIL: Congress to lead on policy as President focuses on narratives
President Jair Bolsonaro’s controversial speech at the UN shows his continued need to focus on narrative-building as opposed to actual governing. Congress has occupied the vacuum, though significant differences of approach prevail between House and Senate. Budget challe… Become a member to read the rest of this article
CHILE: Debate unlikely to change Boric versus Sichel dynamic
The first televised candidates’ debate took place yesterday, 22 September, ahead of the first round of the presidential election on 21 November. Below we examine the key takeaways: The polls going into last night’s debate had the leftist Gabriel Boric in first place; Boric is … Become a member to read the rest of […]
Argentina: More Short-Term Uncertainty, an Opportunity in the Long Term
The results of the primary elections were surprising, as well as how quickly internal tensions escalated within the ruling coalition. The market’s vote was a cautiously optimistic one, recognizing that the short term is fraught with problems, although the chances of a regime chan… Become a member to read the rest of this article
LATAM PULSE
This week, Argentina has a new cabinet after Vice-President Cristina Fernandez (CFK) flexed her political muscles in the wake of the 12 September mid-term primaries. In Brazil, a report from the Senate inquiry into the government’s handling of the pandemic will be released. Chile… Become a member to read the rest of this article
ARGENTINA: Government in disarray after CFK post-primary tantrum
Alberto Fernandez faces the most serious crisis of his presidency as Sunday’s primary defeat continues to reverberate across the governing Front for All (FdT) coalition. Government implosion and/or a shift to radicalism are possible scenarios ahead, though a politically cu… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Argentina: The Current Rate of Intervention Is Unsustainable
The BCRA sold more than 800 million dollars since the FX market changed from positive to negative on August 26. There are several factors behind that. There were companies that canceled debts in dollars, banks that had reduced their foreign currency position a few months ago and … Become a member to read the […]