Econviews Monthly September 24, 2021 Argentina: Special Analysis on Public debt. Will it be sustainable this time? Economics, Argentina, Emerging Markets Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Miguel A. Kiguel, Lorena Giorgio, Isaías Marini I. A poor election and a Government under pressure Inflation, the exchange rate, and economic activity are moving in election mode. The government is using all its firepower to keep the main economic variables under control. Inflation, which had reached... Read More...
Latam September 24, 2021 BRAZIL: Congress to lead on policy as President focuses on narratives Brazil, Politics Mario Marconini President Jair Bolsonaro’s controversial speech at the UN shows his continued need to focus on narrative-building as opposed to actual governing. Congress has occupied the vacuum, though significant differences of approach prevail between House and Senate. Budget challenges are forcing the... Read More...
Latam September 23, 2021 CHILE: Debate unlikely to change Boric versus Sichel dynamic Chile, Politics Nicholas Watson The first televised candidates’ debate took place yesterday, 22 September, ahead of the first round of the presidential election on 21 November. Below we examine the key takeaways: The polls going into last night’s debate had the leftist Gabriel Boric... Read More...
The Week at a Glance September 21, 2021 Argentina: More Short-Term Uncertainty, an Opportunity in the Long Term Economics, Argentina, Emerging Markets Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Miguel A. Kiguel, Lorena Giorgio, Isaías Marini The results of the primary elections were surprising, as well as how quickly internal tensions escalated within the ruling coalition. The market’s vote was a cautiously optimistic one, recognizing that the short term is fraught with problems, although the... Read More...
Latam September 20, 2021 LATAM PULSE Emerging Markets, Latam, Politics editorial Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson This week, Argentina has a new cabinet after Vice-President Cristina Fernandez (CFK) flexed her political muscles in the wake of the 12 September mid-term primaries. In Brazil, a report from the Senate inquiry into the government’s handling of the... Read More...
Latam September 17, 2021 ARGENTINA: Government in disarray after CFK post-primary tantrum Argentina, Politics Nicholas Watson Alberto Fernandez faces the most serious crisis of his presidency as Sunday’s primary defeat continues to reverberate across the governing Front for All (FdT) coalition. Government implosion and/or a shift to radicalism are possible scenarios ahead, though a politically cumbersome... Read More...
The Week at a Glance September 14, 2021 Argentina: The Current Rate of Intervention Is Unsustainable Economics, Argentina, Emerging Markets Alejandro Giacoia, Andrés Borenstein, Miguel A. Kiguel, Isaías Marini The BCRA sold more than 800 million dollars since the FX market changed from positive to negative on August 26. There are several factors behind that. There were companies that canceled debts in dollars, banks that had reduced their... Read More...
Latam September 13, 2021 ARGENTINA: Mid-term primary takeaways Argentina, Politics Nicholas Watson The governing Front for All (FdT) suffered a major setback in the party primaries held yesterday ahead of the partial mid-term legislative elections scheduled for 14 November – as we previously anticipated. Since voting is obligatory,... Read More...
Latam September 13, 2021 LATAM PULSE Emerging Markets, Latam, Politics editorial Nicholas Watson This week, Argentina‘s governing coalition is reeling from a heavy setback in yesterday’s obligatory primary voting which will be difficult to reverse in November’s mid-terms. Ecuador will see union-led protests against government reform proposals. This week also offers an... Read More...
Latam September 9, 2021 BRAZIL: Bolsonaro weaker after protests but early exit threats not in sight Brazil, Politics Mario Marconini President Jair Bolsonaro’s political situation is worse after the Independence Day (7 September) protests that he encouraged. The crowds were impressive in both Brasilia and Sao Paulo, the two cities where he chose to deliver speeches. Over the weekend... Read More...
