The Dollar has treaded water in the past three months, in line with our benign view that “forecasts of the Dollar’s demise as the world’s number one reserve currency are at best extremely premature, at worst unfounded”.… Read the rest
Inflation in emerging market and developing economies
1. Inflation fell to extraordinarily low levels in the emerging and developing (EMD) economies in the early stages of the pandemic, before staging a partial recovery.… Read the rest
Sterling has enjoyed a strong, if bumpy ride, since late-June. It has been the second strongest major currency against the US Dollar and appreciated 3.7% in NEER term, thanks in part to a build-up of speculative long-Sterling positions.… Read the rest
Markets bereft of key macro data releases and policy events in recent days will be turning their attention tomorrow to the European Central Bank’s policy meeting.
The consensus forecast, which we share, is that the ECB will leave its policy rates, including its deposit rate (-0.50%), and the modalities of its PEPP and APP unchanged.… Read the rest
Much of the market focus in recent months has been on major reserve currencies, namely:
Rising temperatures and destruction of ecosystems are set to increase health risks
Covid-19 shows how an animal-borne virus can wreak havoc on humankind. It is vital that its precise origins and transmission process become better understood, so as to avoid similar, or even more infectious and fatal, pandemics in the future.… Read the rest
On historical experience, G7 GDP will likely re-attain its 2019 Q4 level only in 2024
Forecasters make their biggest mistakes when an economy is hit by a shock that is both large (taken to be 2% of GDP or more) and novel.… Read the rest
