July 19, 2021 Sterling’s coming home…albeit slowly FX, G7, UK GBP Olivier Desbarres Despite buoyant domestic expectations (or at least hope) football will not be coming home after the England football team lost on penalties to Italy in Sunday’s final of the Euro Championship but Sterling is arguably coming home, albeit slowly. The... Read More...
June 29, 2021 Sterling leads Euro 1-0 at half-time in dull encounter but could extend advantage FX, G7 EURUSD Olivier Desbarres With England due to play Germany in the last-16 round of the Euro Championships in a few hours time, now is a good time to revisit the Sterling-Euro exchange rate. Football fans will be hoping for a pulsating sporting encounter... Read More...
March 1, 2021 Transitional UK budget unlikely to rattle markets FX, G7, UK UK Budget, editorial Olivier Desbarres The British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will on 3rd March, at around 12.30 UK time, present to the House of Commons the annual budget for the United Kingdom. The ruling Conservative Party has a significant working majority of... Read More...
February 2, 2021 Currency seasonality’s slow comeback? Asia, Emerging Markets, FX, G7, Global, Latam USD Olivier Desbarres This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2010, using over two million daily data points with trade-weights derived from the BIS (April 2019) and... Read More...
February 12, 2021 Dollar’s recent weakness – Blip, not new trend Asia, Emerging Markets, FX, G7, Global, Latam, Macro USD Olivier Desbarres In the past nine weeks major currencies and global equity markets have traded broadly in line with our expectations. The US Dollar has traded in a very narrow range, confounding consistently bearish market expectations. Similarly, most emerging Asian currencies... Read More...
October 28, 2020 US Dollar – Calm before the storm? FX, G7, Global, Macro, US USD, editorial Olivier Desbarres The Dollar has treaded water in the past three months, in line with our benign view that “forecasts of the Dollar’s demise as the world’s number one reserve currency are at best extremely premature, at worst unfounded”. Our fundamental perspective... Read More...
Chart of the month October 20, 2020 Historically low inflation is a global phenomenon Economics, Emerging Markets, G7, Global editorial, Inflation John Llewellyn, Llewellyn Consulting It is not just confined to the advanced economies Inflation in emerging market and developing economies <img width="665" height="446" src="http://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/image.png" alt="Historically low inflation is a global phenomenon 9" class="wp-image-28148" srcset="https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/image.png 665w, https://speevr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/image-300x201.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 665px) 100vw, 665px" title="Historically low... Read More...
September 4, 2020 UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy Economics, FX, G7, Macro, UK Brexit Olivier Desbarres Sterling has enjoyed a strong, if bumpy ride, since late-June. It has been the second strongest major currency against the US Dollar and appreciated 3.7% in NEER term, thanks in part to a build-up of speculative long-Sterling positions. Markets... Read More...
September 9, 2020 Brazen ECB verbal intervention against Euro unwarranted and unlikely FX, G7, Global Olivier Desbarres Markets bereft of key macro data releases and policy events in recent days will be turning their attention tomorrow to the European Central Bank’s policy meeting. The consensus forecast, which we share, is that the ECB will leave its policy... Read More...
September 17, 2020 Dollar, Euro & Sterling in focus, Asian currencies under the radar screen Asia, FX, G7, Global, Macro, US Olivier Desbarres Much of the market focus in recent months has been on major reserve currencies, namely: The US Dollar which, contrary to bearish expectations and in line with our benign Dollar view, has treaded water in the past... Read More...
