Forecasts of the scale of a likely global economic recession and the shape of the recovery often give little thought to the economic variables being measured or their timeliness.
Based on 4X Global Research’s own quarterly global GDP series and its correlation with the global PMI Composite Index, we estimate that global GDP growth slowed to about 0.5% yoy in Q1 from 3.0% in 2019.… Read the rest
Central bankers made a significant volte-face in 2019
… but they now retain limited latitude to respond to new negative shocks
1. Slower economic growth and sagging inflation prompted a broad shift towards monetary easing in 2019.… Read the rest