Category: G7

US Dollar – Calm before the storm?

The Dollar has treaded water in the past three months, in line with our benign view that “forecasts of the Dollar’s demise as the world’s number one reserve currency are at best extremely premature, at worst unfounded”.Read the rest

Historically low inflation is a global phenomenon

It is not just confined to the advanced economies

Inflation in emerging market and developing economies

Historically low inflation is a global phenomenon 1

1.       Inflation fell to extraordinarily low levels in the emerging and developing (EMD) economies in the early stages of the pandemic, before staging a partial recovery.… Read the rest

UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy

Sterling has enjoyed a strong, if bumpy ride, since late-June. It has been the second strongest major currency against the US Dollar and appreciated 3.7% in NEER term, thanks in part to a build-up of speculative long-Sterling positions.Read the rest

Brazen ECB verbal intervention against Euro unwarranted and unlikely

Markets bereft of key macro data releases and policy events in recent days will be turning their attention tomorrow to the European Central Bank’s policy meeting.

The consensus forecast, which we share, is that the ECB will leave its policy rates, including its deposit rate (-0.50%), and the modalities of its PEPP and APP unchanged.Read the rest

Dollar, Euro & Sterling in focus, Asian currencies under the radar screen

Much of the market focus in recent months has been on major reserve currencies, namely:

  • The US Dollar which, contrary to bearish expectations and in line with our benign Dollar view, has treaded water in the past six weeks and since the Fed’s tweak on 27th August to its dual inflation and employment mandate;
  • The Euro’s rapid appreciation in July, its more prosaic performance in August and the first half of September and speculation that the European Central Bank would try to jawbone the currency weaker.
Read the rest

Climate change and disease spread: from nature to humans

Rising temperatures and destruction of ecosystems are set to increase health risks


Covid-19 shows how an animal-borne virus can wreak havoc on humankind. It is vital that its precise origins and transmission process become better understood, so as to avoid similar, or even more infectious and fatal, pandemics in the future.… Read the rest