Climate change and disease spread: from nature to humans
Rising temperatures and destruction of ecosystems are set to increase health risks Covid-19 shows how an animal-borne virus can wreak havoc on humankind. It is vital that its precise origins and transmission process become better understood, so as to avoid similar, or even mor… Become a member to read the rest of this article […]
Comment: Britain and the tyranny of nostalgia
Britain has now been in relative economic decline for the better part of 150 years.Many of the reasons for this were first identified as long ago as the Victorian era.Pyrrhic victories in two world wars only deepened the country’s underlying malaise.An enduring obsession with th… Become a member to read the rest of this […]
Global Letter: Our reference G7 multi-year GDP outlook
On historical experience, G7 GDP will likely re-attain its 2019 Q4 level only in 2024 Forecasters make their biggest mistakes when an economy is hit by a shock that is both large (taken to be 2% of GDP or more) and novel. 1 This time, the COVID-19 lockdown shock is unques… Become a member […]
Further Downside To The USD From Fed QE
fd8136_0be029f966eb4f87b9fe6da7c4b4e999… Become a member to read the rest of this article
Financial repression: a more subtle knife
High public sector debt levels are set to remain at the core of the economic policy debate. Periods of elevated and rapidly rising debt are rarely reversed without some form of default. This need not be explicit. It can be more subtle and covert. It can take the form of inflation, regulation, and the creation of ‘captive markets’ for bonds. The stage is set for an extended period of financial repression.
Growth interrupted: World was in recession in Q1 2020
Forecasts of the scale of a likely global economic recession and the shape of the recovery often give little thought to the economic variables being measured or their timeliness. Based on 4X Global Research’s own quarterly global GDP series and its correlation with the global … Become a member to read the rest of […]
National economic recessions – The price to pay
The consensus forecast is that GDP contracted in many major economies in Q1 and will most definitely contract in Q2 as a result of the negative impact of national lockdowns on supply and demand. The implication is that these economies will be in recession – defined at a countr… Become a member to read […]
Chart of the month – Monetary policy in advanced economies – January 2020
Central bankers made a significant volte-face in 2019 … but they now retain limited latitude to respond to new negative shocks 1. Slower economic growth and sagging inflation prompted a broad shift towards monetary easing in 2019. The decelerat… Become a member to read the rest of this article