US and UK: The Comeback Kids
The US Dollar NEER has since 12th February appreciated about 2.3% to a 4-month high and its inverse correlation with the S&P 500 (-4.2%) has re-established itself. This is in line with our forecast that the Dollar’s sell-off in early February was “a small, short-term correction” rather than “another prolonged downtrend”. If anything we were […]
Biden’s trump cards and challenges
Barring another dramatic twist in an already torturous two months of political upheaval, Joe Biden will find a very full in-tray when he settles into the famed Oval Office in eight days time. The two most pressing issues which he will need to resolve are arguably the Covid-19 pandemic and the associated impact on already […]
Monthly currency seasonality: Down and out?
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Emerging Market currencies: Hopes and Realities
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Event risk and market volatility: Partners in crime
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Warnings about US economy and USD overblown
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Major economies & currencies – What to look out for and why it matters
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Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty
Major currencies, equity markets and the price of crude oil since 8th June – the cycle low in the US Dollar – have exhibited reasonably limited directionality, narrow trading ranges and very low volatility, with the notable exception of currencies in Latin America. However this is not a case of more confident financial market participants […]
Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick
While GDP data for Q1 are now “old” and seemingly of limited use, it makes little sense to forecast global growth in Q2 and beyond without at least knowing the starting point. We estimate, based on data for 19 major economies, that global GDP growth slowed to -2.6% yoy in Q1 from +3.0% yoy in […]
Chinese Renminbi – Canary in the coal mine
While the United States and China have not gone as far as re-introducing or increasing tariffs on each others’ imports, the war of words between the two trading superpowers has clearly escalated with Hong Kong caught in the middle. In line with our expectations the Chinese Renminbi has depreciated versus (a weaker) Dollar and in […]