March 5, 2021 US and UK: The Comeback Kids Big Picture, UK Economics, Emerging Markets, US The US Dollar NEER has since 12th February appreciated about 2.3% to a 4-month high and its inverse correlation with the S&P 500 (-4.2%) has re-established itself. This is in line with our forecast that the Dollar’s sell-off in... Read More...
January 4, 2021 Monthly currency seasonality: Down and out? Big Picture, Global FX, Asia FX, Emerging Markets Olivier Desbarres This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2010, using over two million daily data points with trade-weights derived from the BIS (April 2019) and... Read More...
January 12, 2021 Biden’s trump cards and challenges Big Picture, US Barring another dramatic twist in an already torturous two months of political upheaval, Joe Biden will find a very full in-tray when he settles into the famed Oval Office in eight days time. The two most pressing issues which... Read More...
December 2, 2020 Emerging Market currencies: Hopes and Realities Big Picture, Global FX, Global Economics, Emerging Markets editorial Olivier Desbarres Media coverage of Emerging Market currencies tends to oscillate between the very bearish and very bullish, with little differentiation between low and high-yielding currencies or between regional blocks let alone between the dozens of currencies still referred to, rightly... Read More...
October 8, 2020 Event risk and market volatility: Partners in crime Big Picture, Global FX, UK Economics, US Olivier Desbarres Market volatility has been reasonably subdued in recent weeks, despite acute event (and macro data) risk in the next four weeks, including of course US presidential elections on 3rd November, and a number of significant macro, policy and geopolitical... Read More...
August 4, 2020 Warnings about US economy and USD overblown Big Picture, Global FX, US Olivier Desbarres Press play to listen The United States’ post-war record GDP contraction in... Read More...
July 1, 2020 Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty Big Picture, Global FX, Global Economics Major currencies, equity markets and the price of crude oil since 8th June – the cycle low in the US Dollar – have exhibited reasonably limited directionality, narrow trading ranges and very low volatility, with the notable exception of... Read More...
July 13, 2020 Major economies & currencies – What to look out for and why it matters Big Picture, Global FX, Global Economics Olivier Desbarres Press play to listen <audio... Read More...
June 5, 2020 Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick Big Picture, Global Economics While GDP data for Q1 are now “old” and seemingly of limited use, it makes little sense to forecast global growth in Q2 and beyond without at least knowing the starting point. We estimate, based on data for 19... Read More...
May 29, 2020 Chinese Renminbi – Canary in the coal mine Big Picture, Global FX, Asia FX While the United States and China have not gone as far as re-introducing or increasing tariffs on each others’ imports, the war of words between the two trading superpowers has clearly escalated with Hong Kong caught in the middle. In... Read More...
