Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick

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While GDP data for Q1 are now “old” and seemingly of limited use, it makes little sense to forecast global growth in Q2 and beyond without at least knowing the starting point. We estimate, based on data for 19 major economies, that global GDP growth slowed to -2.6% yoy in Q1 from +3.0% yoy in Q4 2019 and to -4.3% qoq from +0.6% qoq in Q4. Of these 19 major economies only Chile recorded positive quarter-on-quarter growth in Q1. The outlook for Q2 and beyond is clouded by the unpredictable interplay between the: 1) Complex mathematics and science behind the spread of the covid-19 pandem
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I have a new post in the Prime Minister's Time section of my website, analyzing Suga's schedule for the week of 9/20. http://observingjapan.com/2020/09/26/the-week-of-20-september-2020/

Shinzo Abe presided over an era of stability in Japan, but his successor does not share Abe’s luck, @observingjapan writes. Japan’s economy has sunk into a recession and Beijing’s recent actions have entirely undone Abe’s pursuit of a rapprochement.
https://trib.al/GW4kv2W

En 4 de los últimos 5 meses las importaciones pagadas fueron superiores a las computadas en aduana. En exportaciones la tendencia es la opuesta: llevamos 7 meses seguidos con menos ingreso de dólares que exportaciones. Así es la brecha XL. Imposible que no falten dólares. #MULC

"Risks and Opportunities for the Euro" https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document.html?reference=IPOL_STU(2020)652751 . A study Daniel Gros and I did for the European Parliament on the prospects for enhancing the currency's international role.

Shinzo Abe presided over an astonishing period of stability in Japan. His successor promises continuity, but a recession, an aggressive China, and a possible second Trump term will make it difficult to deliver on that promise, @observingjapan argues.
https://trib.al/Bcbe1U8

I don't think I've read anything that lays bare America's "cold civil war" as well as @jbouie does here. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/25/opinion/trump-supreme-court-missouri-compromise.html

Pucha, qué DURA qué esta la economía argentina...
La economía argentina:
https://r24n.com/contenido/198177/primicia-exclusiva-alvarez-agis-remplazaria-a-martin-guzman-como-ministro-de-eco

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