Chinese Renminbi – Canary in the coal mine

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While the United States and China have not gone as far as re-introducing or increasing tariffs on each others’ imports, the war of words between the two trading superpowers has clearly escalated with Hong Kong caught in the middle. In line with our expectations the Chinese Renminbi has depreciated versus (a weaker) Dollar and in nominal effective exchange rate terms in recent weeks (see Figures 1 & 2). Precedent suggests the Renminbi’s slide to an 11-week low is not coincidental but the by-product of the PBoC’s conscious decision to modestly weaken its currency and send a clear, i
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