report July 21, 2020 Global Letter – You wouldn’t want to start from here The policy challenges facing the advanced economies are daunting, and many will fail to deliver. No holds barred Fiscal and monetary policy were loosened rapidly and often unconventionally in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the stringent containment measures... By Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report July 20, 2020 Technologies series: DNA data storage Vast volumes of data can be stored, condensed into DNA. What it is DNA data storage is the archiving and retrieving of data to and from synthetic strands of DNA. Data centres are considered by many, including the world’s... By Preston Llewellyn, Soyon Park Llewellyn Consulting
report July 15, 2020 Global Letter – The economic cost of recessions II Recessions are expensive. Output is permanently lost; and often potential growth is reduced too. In an earlier Global Letter, 1 we reproduced path-breaking calculations made for the UK by the late Christopher Dow. Studying the evolution of post-recession, constant-employment,... By John Llewellyn, Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report July 8, 2020 Comment: Money talks Monetary growth has accelerated, prompting inflation warnings from Monetarists The pick-up reflects extraordinary policy interventions in response to the pandemic Demand for money balances has risen too, although the surge appears to be waning There are also many reasons... By Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report July 3, 2020 Global Letter – Tip of the iceberg The basic science has long been known: but the planet is warming faster than expected. COVID-19 is a sharp reminder of humankind’s fragility and its linkages with the natural world. Headlines understandably focus on its devastating human and economic... By John Llewellyn, Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report June 29, 2020 FOCUS: Hard labour – the post-pandemic jobs market Countries’ labour markets have been hit hard by COVID-19; and the UK more than most The UK is a microcosm of effects likely to be seen worldwide The young, the poor, women, and some minority groups seem destined to... By Dr Donald Verry Llewellyn Consulting
report June 23, 2020 Comment: Forgive us our debts … Total global debt has continued to burgeon in the ten years since the Financial Crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic stands greatly to add to debt burdens. Much of the additional debt that has been incurred is unlikely to be repaid.... By Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report June 15, 2020 Global Letter – The EU: on the money The EU’s recovery programme is a potential game changer for the economy and the single currency. Decisive moment In his memoirs, European visionary and revered French diplomat Jean Monnet asserted that: “Europe will be forged in crises and will... By John Llewellyn, Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report June 10, 2020 Financial repression: a more subtle knife High public sector debt levels are set to remain at the core of the economic policy debate. Periods of elevated and rapidly rising debt are rarely reversed without some form of default. This need not be explicit. It can... By Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report June 8, 2020 Technology Series: Satellite methane detection Methane is a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Detecting leaks is vital. What it is Methane (CH 4 ) 1 is a significantly more potent greenhouse gas (GHG) 2 than carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) over the... By James Cameron, John Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report June 2, 2020 Global Letter: The economic cost of recessions Recessions not only reduce output: they also reduce productive potential It is a good moment to reflect on the teachings of those with long experience of recessions. One master was J. C. R. Dow, 1 in his definitive Major... By John Llewellyn, Soyon Park Llewellyn Consulting
report May 22, 2020 Macro series – Germany challenges the EU The German Constitutional Court’s latest ruling has opened a huge can of worms. Its judgement on the actions of the ECJ and ECB is potentially traumatic. There is more here than simply the conduct of unconventional monetary policy. Rather,... By John Nugée Llewellyn Consulting
report May 11, 2020 Technologies Series – Satellite Mega-Constellations Universal high speed internet access – or a sky full of debris Soon, all our constellations could be LEO What they are Thousands of satellites in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO), able to provide high-speed internet and communication access around the... By John Llewellyn, Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report May 4, 2020 Economic Risks – Llewellyn Consulting – May 2020 Economic Risks Second infection waves hindering normalisation processes After initial rebound, recovery traces an ‘accordion-shape’ Macro policy settings are loosened further Government debt reaches unprecedented levels High precautionary saving and enduring supply-side dam... Become a member to read the... By Llewellyn Consulting Llewellyn Consulting
report April 30, 2020 Chart of the month – Government bond yields unprecedently low – April 2020 Bond yields are extraordinarily, and unprecedently, low … adding to the impetus of fiscal expansion Bond yields across the major economies have fallen to hitherto unheard of levels. The stock of government bonds with sub-1% yields has... By Llewellyn Consulting Llewellyn Consulting
report April 27, 2020 Macro series – The burden of Sisyphus Focus The pandemic and the reaction to it will result in a surge in public sector liabilities. Gross G-7 debt is projected to rise to an all-time high of 140% of GDP or more. Individual countries have in the... By John Llewellyn, Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report April 17, 2020 Macro Series – Global Letter – New Beginnings COVID-19 will wreak many changes. Here are ten big ones. War and recovery. The pandemic is being likened by many commentators to a war. In some respects it is. But the analogy is far from perfect. The stock of... By John Llewellyn, Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report April 8, 2020 Macro Series – Global Letter – Monetary Finance – Redux Policymakers are not quite there yet, but are edging towards outright monetary finance. Forward thinking We have long argued that what was once considered unconventional monetary policy was here to stay and, if anything, likely only to become more... By Russell Jones Llewellyn Consulting
report April 7, 2020 Macro Series – Postcard – Mexico: unprepared, and unable fully to respond In this country of extremes, COVID-19 will likely hit hard. And many women stand to suffer hugely. With one family member in Hong Kong and the rest in the UK, I have been worrying about the coronavirus outbreak for... By Ellen Jones, Llewellyn Consulting Llewellyn Consulting
report April 3, 2020 Economic Risks – Llewellyn Consulting – April 2020 Economic Risks The sharpest and deepest downturn of the post-war era Significantly higher and lasting public debt More macro policy innovation, including monetary finance Social unrest and humanitarian disasters Damage to already-reduced productive potential A swathe of sovereig... ... By Llewellyn Consulting Llewellyn Consulting