Economic Risks – Llewellyn Consulting – May 2020

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Economic Risks Second infection waves hindering normalisation processes After initial rebound, recovery traces an ‘accordion-shape’ Macro policy settings are loosened further Government debt reaches unprecedented levels High precautionary saving and enduring supply-side damage More nationalism, poverty, inequality, and social unrest OECD: radical uncertainty Falls in GDP in Q2 of up to 80% at an annualised rate are to be expected in both the advanced and emerging Unemployment rates are surging higher, and inequality and poverty are likely greatly to be exacerbate
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Shinzo Abe presided over an era of stability in Japan, but his successor does not share Abe’s luck, @observingjapan writes. Japan’s economy has sunk into a recession and Beijing’s recent actions have entirely undone Abe’s pursuit of a rapprochement.
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Shinzo Abe presided over an astonishing period of stability in Japan. His successor promises continuity, but a recession, an aggressive China, and a possible second Trump term will make it difficult to deliver on that promise, @observingjapan argues.
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