report June 21, 2021 Global Letter – Whither the WTO The WTO is not top of President Biden’s agenda; but neither is trade being neglected. Macro-series-Whither-the-WTO-June-2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password... By Jonathan Fried Llewellyn Consulting
report June 18, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week The attached Key Developments contains our Chart of the Week and the key data and other information from this week that, in our judgement, bear most importantly on the core elements of our World View. Macro series – Key... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report June 17, 2021 Focus – Current account imbalances Current account imbalances, such as between the US and the EU, serve a purpose. But it is possible to have too much of a good thing. The longer the imbalance stays large, the greater the likelihood of a reaction.... By John Llewellyn, Philip Turner Llewellyn Consulting
report June 10, 2021 Batteries The ready scalability and high modularity energy storage capabilities of batteries makes them a prime enabling technology for decarbonising the transport sector, and the electricity networks1 which perforce will become the backbone of the low-carbon energy system. Technologies se...... By James Cameron, Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report June 2, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week A US-heavy week: US core inflation has jumped, as have consumer inflation expectations Macro series – Key Developments & Chart of the week – 28 May 2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report May 28, 2021 Economic recovery and resilience The rate to which economic growth settles down will depend on countries’ investment response, including to going digital and green, and the quality of their structural policies. Macro series – Economic recovery and resilience – May 2021 ... ... By John Llewellyn, Silja Sepping Llewellyn Consulting
report May 26, 2021 Semiconductor Chips A truly globalised product, manufacturing delays have hit many industries hard. Technologies-series-Chips-May-2021-May-2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username or E-mail Password Remember Me Forgot Password... By James Cameron, Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report May 18, 2021 Analysis – The surge of Germany’s Greens could change the country Germany’s political landscape seems about to change, with the rise of the Green party under its charismatic leader Annalena Baerbock. Germany’s September election seems likely to result in a coalition government of the Greens, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and... By Michael Heise Llewellyn Consulting
report May 14, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week US gyrations continue: last week, soft employment; this week, soft sales but a price surge. Macro series – Key Developments & Chart of the week – 14 May 2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report May 7, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week Strong US output growth continues; and international divergences in trade balances widen Macro series – Key Developments & Chart of the week – 7 May 2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report April 23, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week The US, Canadian, and UK economies are strengthening; the EU remains in the doldrums Macro series – Key Developments & Chart of the week – 23 April 2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report April 23, 2021 Analysis – Monetary policy and the value of the public debt Pressure is set to mount on governments to start to reduce their national debt Yet paradoxically US and UK post-crisis monetary policy practice stands to increase it Changes in the operating procedures of these two central banks seem likely... By Gerald Holtham, John Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report April 12, 2021 Focus – The effects of climate change on productivity Global warming stands to have quantitatively important effects on country productivity While most countries will apparently be affected negatively , some may see large gains Canada and Russia could see considerable increases in productivity India by contrast is set... By John Llewellyn, Silja Sepping Llewellyn Consulting
report April 9, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week Strong growth in the US, and the IMF upgrades its world outlook Macro series – Key Developments & Chart of the week – 9 April 2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article Username... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report April 9, 2021 Global Letter – Post-COVID-19: country prospects Large country differences in performance are in prospect: and due largely to policy Performance to date Recovery from recession typically takes years – between 3 and 6 before output regains its prerecession level. 1 But history is... By John Llewellyn, Saul Eslake Llewellyn Consulting
report April 2, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week Economic recovery is proceeding apace in Asia and the US Japan ‘Tankan’ survey Large companies were more positive about business conditions in Q1, and the outlook for Q2,than at any time since Q4 2019, although this was more... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report March 31, 2021 Seeds of the next financial crisis – EM dollar borrowing Dollar bond issuance by non-US corporates has dominated forex borrowing since 2008. In many EMs, both leverage and currency mismatches have increased. Both increase the risk of corporate insolvencies. And they create new and growing threats to the balance... By John Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report March 22, 2021 Global Letter – Pan Am, the Boeing Stratocruiser, the Fed, and inflation Pan Am and the Boeing Stratocruiser The following is a parable. Please bear with me. In 1956 my father was flying across the Pacific in a Pan American Airways Boeing Stratocruiser, 1 a propeller plane powered by four huge... By John Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report March 19, 2021 Key Developments & Chart of the week Strong China supply-side performace. US retail sales fell back, but probably only temporarily Macro series – Key Developments & Chart of the week – 19 March 2021 ... Become a member to read the rest of this article... By Preston Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
report March 16, 2021 Focus: Money and Inflation Money growth has surged in most economies, the result of aggressive quantitative easing. If money growth is a harbinger of inflation, that would be concerning. In high-inflation 1970s and 80s, money growth was believed inevitably to cause inflation. However,... By Gerald Holtham, John Llewellyn Llewellyn Consulting
