report November 5, 2019 Forecasting Russia – Reconcile the Incompatible The recently released set of Russia’s monthly statistics produced a mixed impression, not only because some segments of the economy performed quite well while others lagged behind, but also due to the fact that some statistical data look puzzling... By Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov GK EM Analytica
report October 18, 2019 Sovereign Debt: OFZ Rally is a Problem for the Finance Ministry Despite the new round of anti-Russian sanctions and the increase of global turbulence in the first half of August, the OFZ market remains calm. We believe that it still contains fundamental value as inflation continues to slow down in... By Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov GK EM Analytica
report October 11, 2019 Russia’s Monetary Policy: Priorities to be Reconsidered Amid Decelerating Inflation, Slow Growth As in early October the w-o-w inflation did not move to a positive territory for another week and remained at zero, it became almost certain that inflation is going to get closer to 3.0% rather than to 4.0% this... By Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov GK EM Analytica
report October 1, 2019 Budget 2020: Smaller Surplus – Fewer Distortions Russian Ministry of Finance released an updated draft version of a three-year rolling budget, which indicates a shift from a kind of austerity and strong federal budget surplus toward a more generous spending policy, which should be generally supportive... By Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov GK EM Analytica
report September 6, 2019 Russian Macro – Falling Inflation to Pull Key Rate Down Rosstat reported that the YTD inflation reached 2.4% as of September 2, which is already lower than the cumulative inflation over the same period in 2018. In August a 0.2% m-o-m deflation was recorded implying that the cumulative inflation... By Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov GK EM Analytica
report August 28, 2019 Russia in Global Context: Resilient to Shocks, But Growing Slowly In recent weeks a flow of rather hot news was unable to ease the concerns about slowing economic growth worldwide, but Russia was not in the spotlight, as such issues as burning rainforests in Brazil, continuous attempts of the... By Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov GK EM Analytica
report August 21, 2019 OFZ: Market Calm, Risks Moving to 1Q20 Despite the new round of anti-Russian sanctions and the increase of global turbulence in the first half of August, the OFZ market remains calm. We believe that it still contains fundamental value as inflation continues to slow down in... By Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov GK EM Analytica
report July 25, 2019 Economy: Making Russia Safe Again The CBR can support consumer demand by gradually bringing its key rate closer to more comfortable levels, where the word “comfortable” means comfort not to the foreign buyers of the government bonds and not to local banks, but to... By Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov GK EM Analytica
report June 24, 2019 Russian Macro: Healthy Rate Cut Rosstat reported that the major economic indicators in May 2019 were not as good as in April, but that was largely expected as there were fewer working days this year in May than in 2018. The fact that the... By Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov GK EM Analytica
report June 20, 2019 OFZ: Supportive Combination The recent CBR decision to cut the key interest rate and its generally dovish comments about the future direction of the monetary policy may support demand for OFZ from international players. If we take into account the high chances... By Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov GK EM Analytica
report June 19, 2019 Russia’s Growth: Walking with Hurdles Rosstat recently published some data which looked both disappointing and encouraging. On the one hand, it reported that Russia's GDP grew just 0.5% in 1Q19, which was well below all expectations. On the other hand, April statistics surprisingly looked... By Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov GK EM Analytica
The State of the Russian Economy Former heads of Sberbank research Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov
