Report

Budget 2020: Smaller Surplus – Fewer Distortions

Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov

GK EM Analytica
October 1, 2019

Russian Ministry of Finance released an updated draft version of a three-year rolling budget, which indicates a shift from a kind of austerity and strong federal budget surplus toward a more generous spending policy, which should be generally supportive for economic growth. The ...

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report

November 5, 2019

Forecasting Russia – Reconcile the Incompatible

The recently released set of Russia’s monthly statistics produced a mixed impression, not only because some segments of the economy performed quite well while others lagged behind, but also due to the fact that some statistical data look puzzling...

By Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov

GK EM Analytica

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report

October 18, 2019

Sovereign Debt: OFZ Rally is a Problem for the Finance Ministry

Despite the new round of anti-Russian sanctions and the increase of global turbulence in the first half of August, the OFZ market remains calm. We believe that it still contains fundamental value as inflation continues to slow down in...

By Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov

GK EM Analytica

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report

October 11, 2019

Russia’s Monetary Policy: Priorities to be Reconsidered Amid Decelerating Inflation, Slow Growth

As in early October the w-o-w inflation did not move to a positive territory for another week and remained at zero, it became almost certain that inflation is going to get closer to 3.0% rather than to 4.0% this...

By Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov

GK EM Analytica

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report

September 6, 2019

Russian Macro – Falling Inflation to Pull Key Rate Down

Rosstat reported that the YTD inflation reached 2.4% as of September 2, which is already lower than the cumulative inflation over the same period in 2018. In August a 0.2% m-o-m deflation was recorded implying that the cumulative inflation...

By Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov

GK EM Analytica

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report

August 28, 2019

Russia in Global Context: Resilient to Shocks, But Growing Slowly

In recent weeks a flow of rather hot news was unable to ease the concerns about slowing economic growth worldwide, but Russia was not in the spotlight, as such issues as burning rainforests in Brazil, continuous attempts of the...

By Alexander Kudrin, Evgeny Gavrilenkov

GK EM Analytica