Author: Alexander Kudrin

Alex Kudrin

Alexander Kudrin is an economist and market strategist based in Moscow. He is accredited for his deep knowledge of market drives and trading strategies.

Prior to co-founding GK EM Analytica, Alex spent many years at Sberbank’s investment banking arm, Sberbank CIB, where he headed the research department.

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Russia’s Growth: Walking with Hurdles

Rosstat recently published some data which looked both disappointing and encouraging. On the one hand, it reported that Russia’s GDP grew just 0.5% in 1Q19, which was well below all expectations.Read the rest

Economy: Making Russia Safe Again

The CBR can support consumer demand by gradually bringing its key rate closer to more comfortable levels, where the word “comfortable” means comfort not to the foreign buyers of the government bonds and not to local banks, but to local consumers and producers.Read the rest

Russia in Global Context: Resilient to Shocks, But Growing Slowly

In recent weeks a flow of rather hot news was unable to ease the concerns about slowing economic growth worldwide, but Russia was not in the spotlight, as such issues as burning rainforests in Brazil, continuous attempts of the UK government to invent a new recipe of a Full English Brexit, the US government’s own ground-breaking ideas (buying Greenland is just one example) looked more important than Russia-related events.… Read the rest

Russian Macro: Healthy Rate Cut

Rosstat reported that the major economic indicators in May 2019 were not as good as in April, but that was largely expected as there were fewer working days this year in May than in 2018.Read the rest

OFZ: Market Calm, Risks Moving to 1Q20

Despite the new round of anti-Russian sanctions and the increase of global turbulence in the first half of August, the OFZ market remains calm. We believe that it still contains fundamental value as inflation continues to slow down in Russia, which creates ground for further rate cuts and this fact attracts a wide range of investors.Read the rest

OFZ: Supportive Combination

The recent CBR decision to cut the key interest rate and its generally dovish comments about the future direction of the monetary policy may support demand for OFZ from international players.Read the rest

Sovereign Debt: OFZ Rally is a Problem for the Finance Ministry

Despite the new round of anti-Russian sanctions and the increase of global turbulence in the first half of August, the OFZ market remains calm. We believe that it still contains fundamental value as inflation continues to slow down in Russia, which creates ground for further rate cuts and this fact attracts a wide range of investors.Read the rest

Russian Macro – Falling Inflation to Pull Key Rate Down

Rosstat reported that the YTD inflation reached 2.4% as of September 2, which is already lower than the cumulative inflation over the same period in 2018. In August a 0.2% m-o-m deflation was recorded implying that the cumulative inflation remained at zero in the summer months.Read the rest