report August 30, 2026 Mark Carney’s Stag Hunt Canada cannot win a trade war against the US solo, and Carney knows it. In this article, I explain the global trade war through a game theory lens, and show the real game Carney is playing.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report August 22, 2026 We Don’t Judge Canada by Its Gross Debt Gross debt to GDP ratio is over-rated as a key fiscal indicator. I explain why a gross debt ratio can mislead, least of all the "Japan’s 250% debt to GDP" slogan... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report August 17, 2026 Ten charts to Monitor the BoJ’s QE Exit — Part 1 I present BoJ QT monitor. In part 1, I focus on how far the BoJ's JGB ownership fell, who filled the gap and what happens to public sector debt duration when you consolidate BoJ reserves into it.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report August 11, 2026 The BoJ’s Equity Bet Is Paying for QE Exit BoJ's ¥100+ trn equity ETF portfolio covers what it loses on its bonds. The same portfolio is the only channel through which the exit can break the Bank.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report August 5, 2026 Good-bye USD Dominance, Hello Again JPY The yen has been making a quiet comeback as a global currency. As a share of global FX reserves, its share rose from 3.4% in 2009 to 5.8% in 2025, despite the headwind of yen depreciation.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report August 3, 2026 The Warsh Factor in the JGB Curve The US bond market is charging a risk premium as the new Fed chair obfuscates. About a quarter of that lands on JGBs, raising 10Y about 10bp at end-2026.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report July 31, 2026 Japan Cashes In Its National Carry Trade Japan bought its dollars at ¥114 and is selling them at ¥160.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report July 20, 2026 The Long Climb in JGB Yields Is Nearly Over JGB yields saw a historic rise between 2022-2026. Most of the rise came from higher inflation expectations and a normalization of term premia. Our analysis shows the Long Climb is likely nearly over.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report July 16, 2026 Japan’s Fiscal Vigilantes Are Misreading the Curve The JGB curve's shape shows fiscal fear is not the primary driver for the rise in long term bond yields... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report July 1, 2026 Mercy for a Central Bank in a Vice The vice that held the Bank of Japan for four months loosened this morning.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report June 25, 2026 BoJ Steps Up Its Verbal Yen-Intervention The Bank implicitly communicates that defending the yen is now part of its rate hike framework... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
