report August 3, 2026 The Warsh Factor in the JGB Curve The US bond market is charging a risk premium as the new Fed chair obfuscates. About a quarter of that lands on JGBs, raising 10Y about 10bp at end-2026.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report July 31, 2026 Japan Cashes In Its National Carry Trade Japan bought its dollars at ¥114 and is selling them at ¥160.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report July 20, 2026 The Long Climb in JGB Yields Is Nearly Over JGB yields saw a historic rise between 2022-2026. Most of the rise came from higher inflation expectations and a normalization of term premia. Our analysis shows the Long Climb is likely nearly over.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report July 16, 2026 Japan’s Fiscal Vigilantes Are Misreading the Curve The JGB curve's shape shows fiscal fear is not the primary driver for the rise in long term bond yields... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
report July 1, 2026 Mercy for a Central Bank in a Vice The vice that held the Bank of Japan for four months loosened this morning.... By Takuji Okubo Japan Macro Advisors
