Latam February 24, 2021 ARGENTINA: Scandal over “VIP vaccines” has government worried Argentina, Emerging Markets, Politics vaccines Nicholas Watson President Alberto Fernandez continues to fight a rearguard action to limit the political fallout from last week’s revelations about a group of officials, government allies, and the well-connected who secretly received Covid-19 vaccines in violation of eligibility rules.… <a... Read More...
Latam February 9, 2021 ARGENTINA: How vaccines, the economy, and elections fit together Argentina, Emerging Markets, Politics Nicholas Watson The 2021 electoral process involves obligatory party primaries scheduled for 8 August followed by partial legislative mid-terms on 24 October. The mid-terms will not just determine governability in the second half of President Alberto Fernandez’s administration, but will also... Read More...
Latam January 14, 2021 CUBA/VENEZUELA: What lies ahead under a Biden presidency Cuba, Emerging Markets, Politics, Venezuela Biden Nicholas Watson Cuba and Venezuela rank among the more difficult challenges facing incoming US President Joe Biden in Latin America. US domestic political factors go some way to explaining why policy shifts are most likely to be incremental.… Read the... Read More...
Latam February 4, 2021 ECUADOR: Heading towards high-wire election contest Ecuador, Politics Nicholas Watson Voter indecision and polling disparities inject considerable uncertainty into the outlook ahead of the 7 February first round of the presidential election. Although Andres Arauz of the leftist Union for Hope (UNES) coalition appears to have momentum, the most likely... Read More...
Latam February 8, 2021 ECUADOR: Perez or Lasso – that is the question Ecuador, Politics Nicholas Watson With 97.85% of votes cast in the 7 February presidential election now counted, Andres Arauz of the leftist Union for Hope (UNES) coalition has won 32.16% of the vote. Yaku Perez of Pachakutik, the political arm of the Confederation... Read More...
Latam January 7, 2021 ECUADOR: Facing a binary choice Ecuador, Politics Nicholas Watson With exactly a month to go before the first round of the presidential election, our base-case is that an April run-off will be necessary; this would pit the center-right candidate Guillermo Lasso against the leftist Andres Arauz.… <a href="https://speevr.com/2021/01/07/ecuador-facing-a-binary-choice/"... Read More...
Latam January 21, 2021 MEXICO: Unpredictable AMLO to complicate bilateral relations with US Emerging Markets, Mexico, Politics AMLO Nicholas Watson It is difficult not to see various recent moves by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) as deliberately provocative to the new US administration. AMLO’s contrarian attitude is largely due to his drive to acquire leverage ahead of what... Read More...
Latam January 13, 2021 MEXICO: A challenge to electoral governance ahead of June ballot Mexico, Politics Nicholas Watson This week has seen another instalment of the long-running feud between President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) and the National Electoral Institute (INE), which organizes federal elections and audits parties’ finances, and its head Lorenzo... Read More...
Latam February 3, 2021 MEXICO: Confrontation brewing over rehabilitation of state utility’s monopoly Mexico, Politics editorial Nicholas Watson Proposed changes to the 2013 Electricity Industry Law (LIE) represent another lurch towards energy nationalism. A bill sent to the lower house of Congress on 1 February proposes altering grid dispatch rules to benefit the state-run CFE electricity utility;... Read More...
Latam January 5, 2021 MEXICO: Early steps on vaccination belie challenges to come Mexico, Politics editorial Nicholas Watson The government is touting its achievement as the first Latin American country to begin vaccinating its population against Covid-19; the first vaccinations of frontline medical personnel started on 24 December using the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.… Read the rest... Read More...
