Russians are expected to approve more than 200 changes to the 1993 Russian constitution in the postponed nationwide poll taking place between 25 June and 1 July. Voters have an option of casting their ballots online, at traditional polling stations, or at other pre-registered locations (e.g. at home or at workplaces). While the vote is not required for the amendments to come into force, it aims to legitimize President Vladimir Putin’s potential re-election after his term expires in 2024.
Most amendments could be grouped into four categories:
- Institutional setup and procedures: adjusts cabinet approval procedure; modifies and elaborates on powers and responsibilities of government branches; introduces State Council as a coordinating body of domestic and foreign policies; extends immunity to president after leaving the office; states that president may not serve more than two terms in office, with the term count being reset for the current office holder.
- Protecting Russia from external influence: restricts top state officials from holding bank accounts and other valuables outside Russia; tightens residency requirements for presidential candidates; establishes precedence of Russian law over international law.
- Socioeconomic provisions: introduces annual indexation of pensions and social benefits; specifies the minimum wage; guarantees social insurance to all citizens; emphasizes children and family as main priorities of state policy.
- National, historical and conservative values: adds references to Russia’s history, language, cultural heritage; enshrines state support for Russian rights and culture abroad; specifies marriage as a union between a man and a woman; prohibits changes to the current borders of Russia.
The amendments have been already approved by parliament, all regional administrations, the constitutional court, and signed by Putin back in March. Formally, these changes do not require public approval to come into effect, but Putin has requested a nationwide poll to ensure their legitimacy.
There are few doubts that the result will be positive. Independent polls in April and May showed that 44-47% of voters backed the amendments, 31-32% opposed them and 22-24% were still undecided. Since then, authorities have run an active promotional campaign to boost the turnout and raise and chances for approval. Moreover, the vote follows one of the most important national holidays – Victory Day celebrations marking the 75th anniversary of Nazi Germany’s defeat in the World War II. On the same day Putin announced about extended benefits to healthcare and social workers, rolled out a second payment to all families raising children and hiked personal income tax for annual earnings greater than RUB 5mn (around USD 73,000) to exclusively fund treatment of children with rare diseases.
Besides these populist measures, the unusually long and flexible voting procedure leaves a lot of room for irregularities. Multiple reports about employer pressure to boost the turnout have already forced Putin to issue a public statement urging to step up monitoring activities and stop the “coercion” to vote. Nonetheless, there are no signs of large public demonstrations for now.
As previously noted, the most important constitutional change allows Putin to run for two more six-year terms in office after his current term expires in 2024. However, Putin is unlikely to reveal his future role anytime soon as such unpredictability reinforces president’s authority and mitigates the risk of potentially destabilizing infighting for succession among political elites.
